The Sports Cruncher

2011 Week 16 Results

2011-12-31T17:25:00.001-08:00

Back to +10 units on the year.

2011 NFL WEEK 15 RESULTS

2011-12-21T10:08:00.000-08:00

2011 NFL Week 14 Results

2011-12-21T10:02:00.001-08:00

NFL 2011 WEEK 13 RESULTS

2011-12-07T19:18:00.001-08:00

Had a good week in spite of the Monday Night letdown by the Jags. If they could've scored just one 2nd half touchdown we would've hit the 2nd half parlay to make us a small winner on the game. As is, we're now up 9.9 units on the year. Team Totals continue to be strong performers, going 3-1 this week.2

2011 NFL Week 12 Results

2011-11-29T14:54:00.001-08:00

Had a monster Sunday bookended by a lousy Thanksgiving Day and awful Monday Night game. +7.8 units for the week, which gets us back into the black for the season at +6.5 units. For the regular season now I'm +113 points against closing line moves, which is huge. Averaging almost 10 points of line savings a week is such an incredible value. Shame it hasn't translated into more actual profit, though, lol.

2011 NFL Week 10 Results

2011-11-21T16:46:00.001-08:00

2011 NFL Week 9 Results

2011-11-21T16:39:00.001-08:00

2011 NFL Week 8 Results

2011-11-03T16:45:00.000-07:00

Carolina missing the 31 yard field goal at the end of the game was a real bad swing for us. IND not scoring in two trips inside the 5 in the 4th quarter cost us a play, but we did get a last minute score from NO to cash the Over. A bad week, though and now we're down a little bit for the season.

2011 NFL Week 07 Results

2011-10-25T18:27:00.000-07:00

Continued frustration in Sports Cruncher Nation as we were unable to turn a profit for the 3rd straight week, being just barely down at -.38 of a unit. The play of the week on the SD/NYJ Under 45 should have been a sure winner, but couldn't overcome the fumble return touchdown the Chargers scored less than 2 minutes into the game. The Chargers ended up with less than 300 yards of offense, the Jets less than 400, so yeah, this game should have stayed well Under. I will admit to a couple of awful picks on the week, on TEN and the SEA/CLE Over. Man, how wrong were those ones, lol. Live, and hopefully learn, I certainly put notes into my handicapping tips file. 2nd half bets bailed us out for the 2nd time in 3 weeks, as we hit really well there. Funny, as last week they started 0 for 6 before hitting a 1/2 unit winner on the final game. A common thread continued this week, and it's been a royal pain in the ass in it's pursuit of us -- turnovers in a team's own territory when we have both that team and the Under involved in plays. The first 4 turnovers that went against us on Sunday were all turned into touchdowns against. Totals were slightly down this week, with the 1.5 unit top play being the big difference. Overall totals capping has remained strong, but picks on sides have just been a mix of poor luck and poor plays. It's been enough to make me make some alterations to my normal handicapping on sides, but that is not a bad thing, it's always good to try and improve.

2011 NFL Week 6 Results

2011-10-18T21:17:00.000-07:00

In week 5 2nd half plays saved our bacon -- in week 6 they cooked our goose. Down a few units on the week as most plays with a close result went against us. The only game we caught a break in late was with CIN getting that defensive touchdown, but it was on the heels of them missing a 43 yard FG earlier in the quarter that would have had us covering. Totals went 5-3, with the CHI Under losing courtesy of a Devin Hester return td, and the CAR Over losing by 3 after Cam Newton turned the ball over in the red zone near the end of the 1st half, and failing to get points in the red zone (with almost no time left) at the end of the game. DAL got too conservative and lost outright after leading late in the 4th, killing the ML play. The no-breaks game of the week, though, was the SF/DET game, where DET missed a 52 yard field goal before half, just to see SF quickly gain a few yards and make a 55 yard field goal, for a 6 point swing. And then SF scores on 4th down by just inches after the refs donated about 11 yards to the 49ers on the drive. We're back to hovering just above even for the season as Lady Luck is a cold-hearted bitch who has just not been favoring us much this season. If luck balances out steady wins will come our way!Oh, and I continue to beat the market on line moves over, and over, and over, and over...

2011 NCAA Footbal Week 7 Results

2011-10-16T20:00:00.001-07:00

Totals crushed for a second straight week, but sides were very inconsistent and 1st half plays didn't get it done.

2011 NCAA Week 06 Results

2011-10-14T14:29:00.000-07:00

I outfoxed myself with the first half play on Miami (OH) and the 2nd half play on Army, losing both on a game that I favored Miami to win, as they did. Army had outscored every opponent in their first five games, they picked a fine time to score a touchdown in the first couple minutes of the second half and then score no more. Dumb 3 units lost there. The top top sides went 0-2 after Texas Tech's improbable backdoor cover, but I killed on pretty much everything else, going 8-1 on game totals and 2-0 on first half totals along the way. +7 units overall while saving a ton of points on line moves. A promising week at this juncture with more game data to process.

2011 NFL Week 05 Results

2011-10-11T12:41:00.000-07:00

The addition of several late plays ultimately led to the week being a small loser. I really didn't like the 3 team total plays I added much, which is why they were all 1/2 unit plays. They were mostly made because two of them came with no juice and were on the right side of key numbers. The late teaser went down in flames as the Giants blew it against Seattle. Several of the marginal value Overs didn't get there either -- it looks as if the early weeks of mega-scoring are over as defenses are getting up to speed. The round robin of teasers went 1-2 as ARI, the weakest pick of the 3, lost as MIN scored a lot of cheap points early. And as for the Titans? Wow, they really laid an egg in that game. Damage was kept to a minimum for the week because of 2nd half plays, which went 8-2, picking up 4 units.

2011 NFL Week 04 Results

2011-10-06T10:22:00.000-07:00

We got off to a great start on the morning games, up over 6 units, but then things cooled off from there on out and we finished up the week at about the same mark, up a little over 6 units. We swept our strong round robin of 3 teasers, which was nice. As as good breaks for us, I can only really think of Denver scoring in the 4th quarter on 4th and 7 to break a push on their Team Total and make the 2nd half Over play a winner. 2nd half bad luck seemed more abundant: we went 5-2 on Team Total plays, with the two losses coming because BUF couldn't score 7 2nd half points, and NYJ couldn't score 3 2nd half points (in FG range and Sanchez throws the pick six). That was too bad, as we were crushing Team Total plays, cashing the Over on TEN and CAR before halftime, pushing DEN at halftime, and we had St. Louis at Under 21 with zero points at halftime. Jason Campbell's interception at the NE 5, an OAK penalty at the one leading to another non TD scoring drive, and NE's goal line failure to score late in the 4th all conspired to lose the Over in that game for us, which still had a chance to push if OAK converts the last minute 2-point conversion, which they didn't. We lost another 2nd half play when CAR scored in the last 5 seconds, and would've pushed a larger 2nd half play if they made the subsequent 2-point conversion, which they didn't. It was fun to see SF upset PHI, but that score with 3+ minutes left cost us the Under. The Monday Night game was definitely our luckiest game of the week, as IND's 2 big passing plays for TDs helped the +10 bet on them never be in jeopardy, but wasn't helping the Under 42, which did ultimately win by 1 point as the result of 3 missed field goals in the game. We benefited from some missed PHI field goals as well, so this was definitely the first week where missed field goals helped us instead of hurting us.A solid week that was almost a great double digit winning week, but it puts us up 9.8 units including the preseason, and up Over 6 units for the regular season.Oh, it's also worth mentioning that we crushed the market on line moves, ending up 14.5 points ahead. In the only real head-scratching line move this past week, CAR/CHI going down when I loved the Over, I beat the market badly on that one, as the Over cashed against the closing number by halftime. Solid, baby.

2011 NFL Week 03 Results

2011-09-27T10:57:00.000-07:00

Only down about 1/2 a unit for the week in NFL, but a very frustrating week nonetheless, as I hit for better than 50% against all sides, but on the games I actually bet went 2-6. And I'm kicking myself because I got gun-shy on some of the big dogs after the week #2 dog fiasco. My spreadsheet liked both KC and BUF, but I passed on both. Early on it looked like a good decision, as BUF and KC were down 21-0 and 10-0 respectively, but then of course BUF came roaring back to win and KC only lost by 3. Instead, I pressed slim value on some favorites that I might not normally bet, going 1-2 on those added plays. These early weeks are when I feel less confident in my lines, but it's been random bad luck that even though I'm 51% on the sides for every game on the year, I'm down 10 units on the actual side bets I've made, leaving us just barely in the positive for the regular season. Sides have always been my toughest bet to show a good profit for -- indeed, I've had a solid winning season before when I didn't make a dime on sides overall. Oh well, I've started off the first month of the NFL in the hole more than once and ended up with good winning seasons every time but once -- that's the life of a statistics based handicapper.

2011 NFL Week 02 Results

2011-09-19T20:55:00.001-07:00

Cue the lowlights reel, and get your popcorn. But first, let's start with the good. We saved 6 points on market moves, the only game that ended up really going against our midweek position was MIN, as that line went from around -3 EV to -1 or even pick right before kickoff. Suckers, I thought, as MIN romped to a 17-0 halftime lead. And then it was deja vu for MIN in the second half, sucking hopelessly and ultimately losing by 3. Other painful ways to lose: SD driving, down by 6 in the 4th quarter, and then a turnover, which SD ended up with 4 of, to 0 for NE. And still we would've pushed if SD doesn't get stuffed on the goal line before half. SF with a 10 point 4th quarter lead, and then coming within a yard of not even pushing as a +3 dog. MIA turning it over inside their own 10, giving a touchdown that ended up being the difference in a push on the spread. And MIA's Carpenter missing 2 medium to short FGs. KC losing RB Charles in the first quarter -- though it probably wouldn't have made a difference. CHI hanging in there with NO until their starting right tackle goes down early in the 3rd, while NO went on to get their six sacks of the day after that. GB with the ball with under 3 minutes to play, and all I need is for them to pick up a first down, maybe two, and run out the clock, but no, they throw a 70+ yard touchdown to kill both the Under and CAR, who had been covering all day. Our only luck on the day was CAR using the final 2 minutes to come back and cover one of the top plays of the week. The Jaguars -- well, they did have a truckload of turnovers, but hard to say it would've mattered the way they were dominated. The other top play of the day, TEN, was an upset winner, as I predicted. And then on to Monday Night, where a ball tipped 2 times and hauled in for a touchdown with 20+ seconds left in the first half ends up being the difference between pushing and winning.

Week 1 and Week 2 are a bigger gamble than usual, as it can be hard to strike the right balance between last year's stats and the way teams are looking this year. In all honestly I leaned stronger to last year's performances, and it ended up hurting me a little bit -- but it's a tough call, as for the most part the market was backing me up or at least neutral on my picks.

So up, yes, still up for the regular season, but it's less than a unit. Hey, it stinks to give back a nice chunk of change made on week #1, but showing any kind of profit through the first 3 weeks of the season is a bonus, as far as I'm concerned, as it's from week #4 on where I'm using exclusively this year's statistics.

I'll also be making some changes to my line-making formulas in an effort to get them sharper, as always.

2011 NFL Week 01 Results

2011-09-12T23:03:00.000-07:00

On our way to a monster day on Sunday until late punt returns for touchdowns in SF and ARI made it just a really good day, up almost 8 bets. I stepped in front of a Patriots' freight train Monday Night, unfortunately. The Patriots like the no-huddle. A lot. Lesson learned. Recovered the total bet with the Over cashing in the OAK/DEN game.

Speaking of Overs, holy smokes, 12-3-1 on opening week, traditionally a lower scoring week? Scoring was oozing out from everywhere. That I went 5-0 on my Over plays is impressive, I guess, but more impressive given that only 3 games went Under is that on the 5 games I ended up betting Under I went 2-2-1, getting the push on the PHI/STL game at Under 44. I actually had a small unposted winner on the only Under I didn't officially release as a play, in the TEN/JAX game. Yes, definitely more proud of my deft maneuvering on the Unders in such a high-scoring week.

+6.05 Units for the week, always nice to start the regular season in the black.

NCAAF Week #1: 3-0

2011-09-04T12:06:00.000-07:00

I capped a few NCAA games this past week and NAILED IT, lol. They were originally sent out to all clients at the site I now call home, http://www.powerhousepicks.com, as well as posted in the free picks section of the forum there. If you register at the forum there you can see the picks and write-ups, along with future free picks, of course.

+3.4 Units Preseason 2011 NFL final record

2011-09-02T10:26:00.000-07:00

I'd personally like to bid farewell to the randomness of preseason ball and welcome in the regular season.

Preseason Week #4 Results NFL 2011

2011-09-02T10:12:00.000-07:00

The final scores in many of these games paint an ugly picture of this week's picks. The Boschian landscape came courtesy of a bad turnover ratio, though. Of the 9 games in which I did write-ups or analysis, we had a combined turnover ratio of -10, which is awful luck for that many games. Only one of the analyzed teams were out-gained by their opponent (JAX -- NE was also, but that was just a thrown in Wong teaser that I didn't handicap). ATL had almost twice as many offensive yards as BAL. DAL outgained MIA by 101 yards (missed 2 50 yard fgs, lost by 14), NO actually outgained TEN by 43 yards, and SD outgained SF by 50. The CLE/CHI Under, which lost by a point -- that game saw only a combined 479 yards of offense, so the yards per point ratio was way below normal in that game. I'm not going to harp on misfortune every time it happens, but extreme cases like this week one are worth taking a closer look at, lol.

Preseason Week #3 Results NFL 2011

2011-08-30T13:05:00.000-07:00

Preseason Week #2 Results NFL 2011

2011-08-30T13:03:00.001-07:00

I wasn't specific with units in spite of calling some plays stronger, and some weaker/small, so I've recorded everything as a flat 1 unit. During the regular season I'm very specific with my units.

Free Play 8/25/11 Thursday Night.

2011-08-25T14:20:00.000-07:00

Head on over to the forum at http://www.powerhousepicks.com, sign up, and check out the write-up for the CAR@CIN game tonight!

The Sports Cruncher returns for 2011 football!

2011-08-21T18:48:00.000-07:00

Crushed it in week #2 of the preseason, complete with great write ups. :)
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=857945

It looks like I'll be working with an industry veteran on a new handicapping site he's creating, complete with podcasts, free picks as well as paid picks/subscriptions. Details to come here very soon!

The new site is now up, email me at thesportscruncher@hotmail.com for more info.

Actually, I did end up shutting down the other site.

2010-09-07T20:45:00.000-07:00

A new business project means I won't be able to put any time into this football season, regrettably. I thoroughly anticipate being back next year and every season thereafter!

2009 NFL Preseason Week #1 Lines are Ready...

2009-08-05T17:35:00.001-07:00

...and posted at the new site for subscribers along with recommended plays.

The New Site is Up

2009-08-05T17:33:00.000-07:00

Hi,the site is up at http://www.sportscruncher.com so the blogspot has been dropped from the name. The site will be much easier to navigate, and will host all content for both subscribers and the general public.

2009 NFL Preseason -- I'm In

2009-07-20T20:24:00.000-07:00

For the first time, I'm going to take a crack at the NFL preseason this year. As a spreadsheet guy, clearly it's not a natural fit for my usual system of getting a few games of data into the system and going from there. That being said, I've done a lot of research on successful preseason handicapping and am excited (with mild trepidation) to throw the numbers out the window and look at the goals and motivations for each team in each game in order to profile the likely winner. So get your bankroll in order, as our goal is to boost it before the regular season even gets under way.

NFL 2008 SEASON FINAL RESULTS

2009-05-07T13:57:00.000-07:00

SIDES: +29.1 UNITS
TOTALS: +35 UNITS
TEASERS: +10.6 UNITS
HALVES: +23.4 UNITS
QUARTERS: +4 UNITS
PROPS, PARLAYS & TEAM TOTALS: +26.7 UNITS

+128.9 UNITS TOTAL
AVERAGE BET SIZE = .92 UNITS
+139.8 AVERAGE SIZE BETS
+11.33% RETURN ON INVESTMENT ON ALL BETS

A +5% ROI is considered phenomenal, I more than doubled that last season. I work very hard at what I do and the results reflect that.

YES, I WILL BE BACK FOR THE 2009 SEASON. Discounted season packages will be available starting in August.

Super Bowl Results

2009-05-07T12:01:00.001-07:00

Down a tiny amount for the Super Bowl, would have been up a good amount if not for Pittsburgh's miracle touchdown return before halftime, as that killed a couple of large plays.

Week #20 Plays & Results 2008

2009-01-20T12:04:00.000-08:00

+6.14 Units. 3 solid winning weeks in the playoffs.

My Record, Through Week #20 (+ the Past 4 Years)

2009-01-11T23:10:00.000-08:00

From posted plays at 2 online forums through week #7, and plays posted for subscribers after that:

Sides & Money Lines: +28.1 Units
Totals: +37.4 Units
Teasers: +10.6 Units
Halves (Primarily second): +24.5 Units
Quarters: +4 Units
Props & Parlays & Team Totals: +24.4 Units

Total: +129.1 Units

Average Bet Size = .92 Units, +140.1 Average Sized Bets
ROI = 11.52%

Here are the links to my past season's year end results. One thing to keep in mind is that in the past my average sized bet was nearer to a half unit, unlike now, where it's closer to (but less than) a full unit.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=547034&page=5 2007 -- +49.5 Average Sized Bets

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=450890 2006 -- +29 Average Sized Bets

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=345443 2005 -- +14.5 Units, probably in the +25 Average Sized Bets range.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=258707 2004 -- +30.5 Units, probably in the +55 Average Sized Bets range (58% on all Units bet)

Divisional Round Playoffs 2008 Plays & Results

2009-01-11T18:32:00.000-08:00

Wildcard Round Plays & Results 2008

2009-01-04T17:51:00.000-08:00

Solid winning week. The BAL/MIA game was the only one to show a loss. The week would've been about 3.5 units better if Westbrook hadn't of popped that 71 yard touchdown in the 4th quarter! Still, I couldn't be too upset that the biggest play of the week, the Under 42 in the MIN/PHI stayed Under after 30 points in the first half. 2nd half plays stayed hot, going 4 for 4.

Week #17 Quality Control

2008-12-29T13:50:00.001-08:00

Turnovers in all the wrong places this week. Both games with a -4 turnover ratio I had the other side for 1 unit, and in the 2 games with a +3 ratio I had only one of the sides bet for 2/3 of a unit. With the wind in Buffalo I nulled the total for record keeping by matching my projection to the closing line.

50% or better on both sides and totals again -- the results have been very consistent since making some serious changes that made the lines more dogcentric, though we've only had one huge week in terms of units won since doing so, as we've so often been on the wrong side of turnovers and big plays.

Still, it's been a fantastic season at +110 units (117 average sized bets) with a 10.45% ROI, which is almost unheard of.

Week #17 Plays & Results

2008-12-29T13:37:00.000-08:00

We did really well on saving points versus line moves this week, only left holding the bag on one play, the NE/BUF Over 42 I made earlier in the week. I woke up on the West coast on Sunday morning to see the line had plummeted with the ridiculously strong winds that moved into Buffalo overnight. I capped the negative line movement for the tally at 3 points, as all of the line movement was associated with the turn of the weather, and not any inherent value on the Under in otherwise normal conditions.

Being on the right side of so many line moves did us little good this week, however, as they breaks went against us to a large degree. -8 turnover margin overall. The Patriots once again cooked my goose. The Bills actually outgained the Patriots, yet failed to score any points -- such are the fruits of an undisciplined team like the Bills. Their debacle at the end of the first half was truly a thing of horror -- failing to get off a field goal attempt with almost 30 seconds on the clock. If they get that field goal is breaks up the "No - 3 unanswered scores" string of scores that the Patriots had (only 3 total scores), making the 1 unit play a probable winner, a 2.6 unit swing. And the Bufs failing to cover the 7 point spread (I bought the hook from 6.5) after outgaining the Pats is another 2.2 unit swing -- et voila! The difference between a winning and losing week.

On the plus side the stronger plays of the week did very well - all 4 plays that were greater than 1 unit won (KC/CIN Over 37 lost, but I did have one unit on the Under 40 going for the middle).

After going 4 for 5 for +3.5 units on the "No - 3 Unanswered Scores" plays a couple of weeks ago, they didn't do well in week #17, going 1 for 5 and -1.725 units.

Week #16 Plays and Results

2008-12-23T20:55:00.001-08:00

We'd been chugging along near even the last few weeks as we couldn't seem to buy many breaks. This week we had a near avalanche of breaks -- though two of the turnovers curried by teams I favored the spread ended up killing two plays. In both the TEN/PIT and SD/TB games I recommended the "No - 3 Unanswered Scores" prop play. The wager was winning in the TEN/PIT game until TEN returned an interception for a score with 16 seconds left in the game -- a play where the defender usually just slides to the ground 9 out of 10 times, so that was a bad beat and a 2.4 unit swing. The Chargers picked off Garcia and ran it back to kill the play with 2 or 3 minutes left in the game. Grr. Both of those plays went down in the early games, but they ended up being mere sacrifices to the incredible boon of good fortune in the later games, as we swept nearly every play in site. All in all, recommended subscriber plays ended up at +22.2 units, an incredible 4th time getting 20+ units in a week this season. Plays on totals had gone 10 for 10 until losing on the Over 40 on the Monday night game by 3 points.

Week #16 Quality Control

2008-12-23T20:52:00.000-08:00

Great week on both sides and totals. We haven't had the turnover margin be in our favor for quite a while it seems -- I guess it was all saving up for week #16 and a +16 ratio. Can we hope for a +17 ratio in week #17, lol? The only major fiasco of the week was Arizona's absolute ineptitude in the snow. The only minor fiasco was the Cowboys and their inability to stop the Ravens in the 4th quarter.

Ravens @ Cowboys Week #16

2008-12-20T12:00:00.000-08:00

Ravens @ Cowboys

As a lover of burgers and fries (in a mostly uncaring universe one of the few things to be grateful for this Holiday season is that this most delicious of meals is widely available and eminently affordable), I have newfound disdain for CB Frank Walker of the Ravens, for he committed sacrilege by spitting on the Berger last week. He and Mitch got into a scuffle near the end of last week’s game when Frank apparently attempted a cheap shot to kicker Reed’s leg. The lowly punter/holder defended his fellow non-fierce position playing teammate, and Walker garnished Berger with a fully hocked loogie for his efforts. Frank, you’re as dead to me as a Thanksgiving Turkey. Perhaps Frank’s frustration flourished at the end of the game because the Ravens were once again about to lose to a quality team. The Ravens this year have only 2 victories versus teams with a winning record.

On the ebb and flow chart, the Ravens are ebbing and the Cowboys are flowing. The Cowboys’ defense is stiffening up like a corn starched collar, while the Raven’s flaccid Flacco-led offense is wilting like a winter weed. I could name the numbers, but alluding alliteration makes taut the tale.

Ray Rice, Ravens’ RB, is very “?”, so it’ll be up to Mr. McClain to carry the load with Mr. McGahee finding the field for 3rd downs. No less than 3 starting offensive lineman for the Ravens’ saw limited practice time this week but will be starting regardless. The aforementioned Frank Walker was cursed by karma with a semi-crippled calf for his uncouth projectile “cough,” and SS Ed Reed didn’t practice all week as well to save himself for the game. The Ravens’ secondary is really not in the best shape right now to be facing a team with as many threats as the Cowboys. When Samari “1 wheel short of a full” Rolle is the healthiest guy in your secondary, it’s a cause for concern.

Tony Romo practiced fully on Thursday and claims no ill-effects from the knee to the back he took last week. Marion Barber and his bad toe are “?”, so the choice may continue to be more runs for Tashard. The Cowboys’ defense, sans the sordid sustaination of injuries at safety this season, are healthy. Even Pacman Jones has had a Christmas miracle recovery and will be available for this game.

The Ravens’ offense is ill-equipped for late game comebacks, while the Cowboys’ defense is perfectly suited for punishing panicky pass-happy offenses, as they demonstrated versus the Giants’ last week. Last week’s Cowboys’ game was a blueprint for this week’s possible last game ever in the Cowboy’s current confines.

The Cowboys were a recommended play when the line dipped to -4, but are still worth a weaker wager at the current -5.5.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 16 – Cowboys 24

COLTS @ JAGUARS WEEK #16

2008-12-17T17:28:00.000-08:00

The Jag Offense came alive last week versus the Packers. Garrard had a better than 100 QB rating versus a good but fading Green Bay pass defense. In that game they only ran the ball 18 times in spite of never trailing by more than 6 points, which is uncharacteristic for the Jaguars. Surely the fresh absence of Fred Taylor and their “nothing to lose” standing contributed to their decision to attack the Packers through the air even though the Packers’ run defense is their weakness. Backward thinking by the Jags got them the win, nevertheless. Perhaps the Packers were stacking the box and the Jags were merely taking advantage. With WRs Jerry Porter out and Matt Jones suspended, Dennis Northcutt had a big game going for 5 catches and well over a hundred yards. Suddenly the Jags have a deep threat.

The Colts’ defense is rather similar to the Packers – good at defending the pass and porous against the run. I suspect the Jaguars will utilize the play action quite a bit to penalize Indy for keeping many defenders close to the line of scrimmage. Indy has little choice, though, as they have to stop the run first.

The Colts’ offense should be incredibly pass-happy in this game. Addai is just coming back from injury, and a couple of their offensive lineman will be dinged up but playing. Hurt linemen typically fare better pass blocking than run blocking. Regardless, Manning and Co. will look to abuse the Jags’ secondary early and often. With cornerback Rashean Mathis lost for the year, the Jags are forced to put Brian Williams back into the starting role at cornerback, and the Colts completed every pass they threw against him last year when he was playing cornerback. Other than the secondary, the rest of the Jags’ defense is in okay shape. The front 7 have seen a few revolving injuries since about week #3 this season, and then veteran LB Mike Peterson was benched a few weeks ago after a tiff with head coach Del Rio. 2nd year LB Justin Durant got a starting job on the outside and Daryl Smith was moved inside when Peterson was sent to the doghouse. Now that Smith is lost for the year Peterson returns to the middle. Paul Spicer out at DE is the lone man missing from the front 4 that started the season.

Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities that will allow the opponent opportunities to exploit the necessary defensive adjustments. The Jags should find plenty of holes in the secondary, while the Colts should find ample running lanes or a lot of short passes to Addai that can quickly turn into decent gains. That being said, I think the Colts will still have a hard time running the ball even with the Jags defending the pass first, as the Colts are plain awful running the ball – the worst in the league by my rankings. The Jags, meanwhile, are near league average passing the ball, ranked 16th, so overall they’re better suited to take what the defense gives them.

The Colts are playing pretty good football, having won their last 7, but they haven’t exactly passed through murderer’s row, as none of their last 5 opponents, the Texans, Chargers, Browns, Bengals and Lions, has a winning record. They let the toothless Lions hang around well into the 2nd half last week at home. Only 3 times this season have the Colts beat a team by more than 6 points, and none of those have been on the road. I say look for more of the same this Thursday night. This essentially being a playoff game for the Colts means they shouldn’t be easing up offensively regardless of the score until very late in the contest, so I like the Over 44 as well. Weather conditions in Jacksonville Thursday night will be ideal.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 24 – Jaguars 21

Week #15 Plays & Results

2008-12-15T21:52:00.000-08:00

Down 6.6 units this week, purely biggest the majority of the big plays lost, lol. On several games I had the opportunity to buy back for some small middles but let everything ride -- doubling up ending up being doubling down in most instances. Two of my strongest plays, the Raiders and Cardinals, both found themselves down 21-0 at some point during the first quarter, lol. I did salvage a little with halftime bets on both of them, but another 2 unit play on the Under 47 in the ARI/MIN game ended up losing by one point after Minny's improbabe, aided by 2 huge plays start.

An excellent week on props saved the week from being really bad. I went 4 of 5 on the "No - 3 Consecutive Scores by a Team" plays, and those were all a minimum of +140 juice, so it was a nice return, including a fairly easy one unit on the BAL/PIT game. MNF then saw a sweep on props with 4 wins and 1 push, including a strong 2 unit play on PHI -5.5 first downs. They ended up about 10 first downs up, and it was never in jeapordy heading down the stretch.

Still it was a losing week, something I hate and fortunately don't have to suffer through many of, lol.

Week #15 Quality Control

2008-12-15T21:49:00.000-08:00

I made all games where my line was within a point on either the side a total a "PUSH" instead of affecting my percentages by being narrowly on one side or the other of a decision. It actually hurt my % on totals this week, as I made 3 wins and 1 loss a push as a result. Crummy luck on sides this week, and it showed up on the bottom line.

Patriots @ Raiders Week #15

2008-12-12T12:06:00.001-08:00

Patriots @ Raiders “Riding the Fade Train”

The Patriots’ Fade Train has paid off handsomely the last two weeks, with neither game receiving so much as a scare down the 4th quarter stretch. The Steelers outscored the Patriots 23-0 in the 2nd half for a convincing 23 point victory as small road dogs, while the Patriots had to score the last 11 points of the game last week at Seattle just to win the game, which didn’t result in a cover for them, as the line went from an opener of near 4 points up to an unbelievable 7.5 before kickoff (and no, Seneca Wallace starting at QB didn’t come even close to justifying that kind of line move as he had a hell of a good day, garnering a 129 passer rating versus Cassel’s 84). On the strength of these last two wins, the Patriots’ Fade Train I’ve been riding since week #3 is firmly in the black. It’s humorous, but true – I’ve bet against the Patriots in every game since backing them as dogs versus the Jets in week #2. Last year with all of the inflated spreads it was almost the same story: betting against the Patriots every week. Last year we were initially punished as the Patriots continued to cover the large spreads for a while, but we got it all back and then some as I believe they only covered one game for something like the final third of their season.

Not all stops on the Fade Train are appealing as others. The station in Oakland is decrepit from the abuse that visiting teams often inflict on the lowly Raiders. Wandering through this graffiti covered, mystery stained, reeking mostly of what would have to be guessed as stale urine train station can leave one wondering if perhaps this is the week to take a Greyhound bus and just hope that someone doesn’t decapitate you and feast on your skull mid trip (true story for those of you who didn’t see the story in the news earlier this year, lol). Well, pull up your Dickies, put on your Carhart overalls, and lace up your Timberlands, because we are not about to get off the Patriots’ Fade Train this week.

An opening caveat: The Raiders this year may be the worst first half team in the history of the NFL! They’ve only scored one offensive touchdown in the first half in 13 games this season. They’ve been outscored by their special teams unit who have a punt and kick return touchdown in the first half. Slow starts have been incredibly damaging to the Raiders’ hopes of winning many games, and not just for the obvious reason that the team with more points wins, lol. The Raiders are, of course, a run-first team. They do it moderately well. They are not, by any stretch of the imagination, a passing team. They have the worst pass offense in the league. They could attack an unsuspecting nudist colony and still lose the ensuing battle, such is their lack of weapons in the passing game. Not once this season have they been able to overcome a deficit of any number in the second half for a win, such is the impotency of their passing game. The key, therefore, will be for them to keep the game close so they can run the ball effectively and have a believable play action. Here’s why they should be able to…

The Patriots will be heavily favoring the run themselves this week. The weak half of the Raiders’ defense is their run defense, and teams have exploited that all season long. The Raiders have only once kept a team below 100 yards rushing this season, and that was in week #2 at Kansas City, a game which the Raiders led pretty much from wire to wire, which also happened to be only game in which a Raiders’ opponent ran the ball less than 20 times. The Patriots have done a pretty good job running on any but the top tier run defenses.

Matt Cassel’s father tragically passed away, and Matt just returned to practice on Thursday, leaving him not much time to prep for a good pass defense. Every game is of critical importance for the Patriots’ playoff chances, so I expect the Patriots to employ a mostly conservative passing game to complement their running game. Wes Welker will get his usual dozen short catches or so, lol.

The Patriots’ defense is starting to look like a halftime “Let’s honor the old players” program. Junior Seau, Roosevelt Colvin, shoot…I’m not even going to blink twice if I see Troy Brown at cornerback at some point during the game. The injuries started in the secondary, crept up into the linebacking corps and have now infected the defensive line. The result? 134 yards of rushing for the Seahawks last week. The Patriots really need Vince Wilfork back at nose tackle this game, and he’s still “?” after leaving last game with an injury and not returning. Either way, players playing injured can only be lower than their optimal level, not better.

As the game should be played pretty close to the vest, with scoring hopefully not coming in fits or bunches for the Patriots (though the Raiders can certainly yak up a bunch via botched special teams plays or turnovers), I’m thinking they keep the game close enough so they aren’t limited to 15 rushes like they were versus the Chargers last week. The Raiders, on rare occasion, have also been known to throw a nice play action pass for good yards, and they should have numerous opportunities to do so in this game. Versus an injury plagued defense that will be looking to stop the run first, the Raiders really, really need to take advantage with the passing game to keep the Patriots’ defense honest. As bad as the Raiders’ passing game has been, I think they’ll be able to do enough in this game.

Darren McFadden is mostly back from injury, but he had only one carry for no gain last week. So is he really healed up? I don’t know. Left tackle lame Kwame Harris has finally been benched, and Mario Henderson will get the start again, and the offense has been better with Mario. The Raiders’ wide receiving corps has had injuries of their own this season. Rumor has it the Raiders will use a two tight end set more this week for both running and passing plays. JaMarcus Russell will be sporting a gimpy ankle this week, and his mobility at times is a more dangerous weapon than his arm. The Patriots may dial up a little more pressure early and test that ankle to see how it’s holding up.

To conclude: The Patriots are on the West coast for a second consecutive week, late in the season when fatigue begins to be a factor, with a defense comprised of many aging and/ or reactivated veterans. Current Patriots/ex Raiders Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan will have a little extra motivation this game – it remains to be seen if the Raiders’ defense will be a little extra motivated to shut them down. I think they will be motivated – not just to shut down the former players, but the entire Patriots’ team, because they are the Patriots, after all, and they and their hated coach have had large targets on their backs for many years running now. I think a few big run and pass plays propel the home team to victory. Once we’re sitting comfortably again on he Patriots’ Fade Train counting our cash we’ll laugh at how the poor conditions of the Oakland station didn’t turn out to be so bad after all.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 20 – Raiders 21

The play was recommended to subscribers at +7.5 when the line opened. The line is currently +6.5 at most shops. In spite of my upset optimism, I’d buy the hook up to +7 if necessary, which is always a good move for the usual 10 cents.

SAINTS @ BEARS Week #15

2008-12-10T15:06:00.001-08:00

If there is one person Drew Brees perpetually has a step on in football, it’s Kyle Orton. Orton followed in Brees’ footsteps to Purdue University and then to the NFL, but he’s never been able to put up passing numbers anywhere near those of Brees. Luckily for Orton, he hasn’t had to carry the team on his shoulders as the Bears have equaled the Saints’ 7-6 record with a better defense.

One might think that the Bears have the vastly superior run game, but the gap in quality is pretty close right now with both squads well below average. Not only that, both teams have had a soft run-defense schedule. The Bears have had the 23rd ranked toughest run defense schedule, while the Saints have had the 31st, one shy of the easiest schedule. Not so good for either team, with the small nod going to the Bears as teams have been able to key on their run game more than anyone dares to do versus the Saints’ passing offense. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combined for 182 rushing yards last week versus an admittedly poor Falcons’ run defense. Nobody puts 8 men in the box versus the Saints unless it’s a down & very short distance situation, and the Saints are taking advantage by running the ball more and more. Yes, Reggie Bush is back, which means Deuce McCallister is relegated to nothing more than an occasional 3rd and inches play, lol.

The Bears’ run defense won’t be getting any extra help this game, so expect the Saints to utilize a balanced offense that will keep the Bears’ defense on it’s heels all game, as they need the Bears to respect the run enough to maximize their success with the play action pass. The Bears’ will be relying on their front four to get pressure on Drew Brees, so don’t expect a lot of blitzes from them as they’re well aware that Brees is possibly the best quarterback in the league at getting rid of the ball when facing pressure. If their defensive line doesn’t get to Brees they’ll just be crossing their fingers and hoping that they have enough passing lanes clogged with defenders to break up passes or get interceptions, as Brees isn’t gun shy and will almost always throw the ball instead of taking a sack, and the Bears have been better at getting interceptions than sacking quarterbacks this year. The Bears’ defense has good reason to be very nervous in this game, as they’re just not solid enough defending the pass to get too creative.

The Bears have a below average 25th ranked run offense, and their pass offense is slightly worse at 26th. This is a good match up for the Saints’ defense. They got off to a poor start this season and have had to deal with a few injuries, but they’re back to near 100% up front and it’s showing up in their performances. In 6 of their last 9 games the Saints’ defense has held opponent’s to under 4 yards per carry, and some of those came versus some very good run teams – the Vikings, the Panthers, and the Falcons twice, all top 10 run offenses, and versus the Packers (15th) and Raiders (17th). The Bears are far below these teams.

Can Kyle Orton and the passing game compensate for the average at best run day the Bears can expect to have? Once again, the trends indicate that no, they will not. The Saints’ pass defense also struggled early in the season but has shown a lot of improvement as the defense has gelled as a complete unit. In precisely half of their last 8 games has a team thrown for more than 5.4 yards per pass versus the Saints – twice by the Falcons (ranked 5th), once by the Chargers (ranked 2nd), and once by the Panthers (ranked 8th), so only very good passing offenses are having success versus the Saints, and those were all games in which the Saints keyed on the opponent’s run offenses with pretty good success.

While the Saints’ defense has been improving, the same can’t be said for the Bears’ offense. Since week 3 they’ve only had two games in which they’ve gone above the opponent’s average allowed yards per run, once versus the abysmal Rams, and two weeks ago versus a good Vikings’ run defense, but they were playing from a double-digit deficit for the entire second half. Not since week #7 have they thrown for more yards per pass than an opponent usually allows, a very poor span of 6 consecutive games, 5 of which saw them throw for less than 5 yards per pass attempt.

In spite of their equal 7-6 records, these are really teams moving in opposite directions right now. Speaking of week #7, that was the last time the Bears beat a team with a winning record, the Vikings. Over the last 6 games the Bears have been outscored by more than 3 points per game, while the Saints have outscored their opponent’s by 4, and with a tougher schedule to boot.

Clearly, the wrong team is favored in this game and the cold weather alone won’t be enough to slow down and stop the Saints from winning a key game in the wildcard race. Drew Brees works harder than any other quarterback in the league in preparing for each game, and on a short week that may be an even bigger advantage he has versus Kyle Orton, who will once again be following in Drew’s wake after this game.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 24 – Bears 20

Week #14 Plays & Results

2008-12-08T22:29:00.001-08:00

Week #14 started off sour on the Thursday night game, was doing very well on Sunday until the Cowboys' late meltdown, faded a little more on Sunday night, and left us +1.8 units for the week. Beats losing, I guess. More bad luck than good usually means modest winning weeks, as my losing weeks are few and far between.

Week #14 Quality Control Table

2008-12-08T22:19:00.001-08:00

The dogs should've covered almost every game this week when grading by yards and yards per play, but being dogs, failed to do so on several games. A sub-par week on totals as we just missed a couple of the bigger plays by one point.

49ers @ Bills

2008-11-25T21:10:00.001-08:00

The Bills broke a 4-game slide with a victory over the Chiefs last week – a reason for renewed hope? Yes and no. The return of Josh Reed at WR helped Trent Edwards to his career best passing day, but then again, it was against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Still, Trent Edwards was happy to take something positive away from a game for once, regardless of how it came. Their running game was so-so, with Marshawn Lynch averaging just under 4 yards per carry versus an extremely poor run defense.

Defensively, the only thing they did right was get 5 turnovers. They gave up 462 yards to a Chiefs’ offense that only learned how to do anything successfully a mere month ago. Without those turnovers the Bills are probable losers as they were outgained by the Chiefs. It was a good day for rookie CB Leodis McKelvin who had to fill in for the injured Jabari Greer. Coach Jauron has been hesitant to start McKelvin before, but had little choice here, and McKelvin had two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. McKelvin also had a kickoff return for a touchdown 2 weeks ago versus Cleveland. Leodis was the 11th overall pick out of Troy last year. I wonder if anyone has ever been drafted in the top 10 out of Troy? The Bills run defense gave up 159 yards on only 13 carries as Larry Johnson busted off a 63 yarder.

The Bills have given up an average of 157 yards rushing over their last 3 games, all to teams that are pretty good at running the ball. The 49ers are only ranked a little lower in rush offense than the Bills’ past 3 opponents, in small part due to the horrendous day the 49ers had running the ball versus Dallas last week. The 49ers should rebound on the ground and also go for over a hundred yards rushing versus the Bills. As the Bills top defensive priority will be stopping Frank Gore, 49er QB Shaun Hill should find himself with little pressure in the pocket except for on obvious passing downs, which is when the Bills like to stand up out of their stance and wave their arms about crazily in an effort to intimidate opposing offenses. Mostly it’s just for show, though, as the Bills are 29th in the league in sacks per pass plays defensed, and 19th in pass defense. Shaun Hill is a pretty cool cat that can hang in the pocket and deliver the ball anyway.

49ers’ CB Nate Clements had a horrible day defensively guarding Terrell Owens last week. Clements, a high-priced CB, is supposed to be able to hold his own versus any top receiver, but got burned on 3 big plays where the play call didn’t have him jamming Terrell at the line of scrimmage. Clements has typically been a guy that likes to play off the receiver and bait the quarterback into throwing his way. In Buffalo he did that a lot simply because he was playing in a weak secondary where he felt more harm would be done if he guarded his man tightly, forcing the QB to throw against weaker parts of the secondary. I don’t know if it’s the luck of the bounce or what, but the 49ers have been one of the worst teams in the league this year at getting interceptions. I have a feeling they’ll get one or two off of Edwards this week, though. Edwards didn’t throw any picks after throwing 3 in the first half versus Cleveland the week before. He is often guilty of staring down his receivers, which could easily lead to some picks versus experienced route-hopping CBs Clements and Harris. Edwards figures to be in numerous obvious passing downs this game as the 49ers’ 8th ranked run defense should keep the Bills’ 27th ranked run offense in check on many plays.

In summary, the 49ers, because of the big edge they have in the running game, will find the passing lanes and pass rush far more open than the Bills will, propelling them to a road victory versus a Bills team primed to continue it’s backsliding after a one week respite versus the Chiefs.

Final Score Prediction: 49ers 23 – Bills 21

Week #12 Quality Control

2008-11-25T10:49:00.001-08:00

Funny week on totals, as even though I hit 75% across the board I was only up 1 unit on the plays. Of the 4 stat estimated totals in which my original projections were wrong, 2 of those I actually bet and won on. 2 of my strongest Unders, 2 unit plays, lost in actuality though they should've covered. In fact, not a single Under that I bet last week should've lost, though 3 of them did. Even the NO/GB game, oddly enough, should've gone Under the 53.5 opening line by a few points. Turnovers, short fields from returns, and insane red zone production pushed that one way over the total, unfortunately. So yeah, funny week as a couple of the 1 unit plays won that shouldn't have, while a couple of the bigger plays lost that should've won.

On sides it was more bad luck than good, as once again I managed to bet on a few teams that outgained their opponents in straight up losses. On the turnover ratio I was -6, mostly due to the -5 ratio in 2 separate games -- both of which happened to be featured write up games that went horribly wrong. The Eagles did indeed suck, but by yards and yards per play they should've only lost by a couple of points, while the Chiefs in fact should've beat the Bills. The Cardinals, Panthers and Chargers also outgained their opponents in losing causes.

Week #12 Plays & Results

2008-11-24T22:16:00.001-08:00

Eagles @ Ravens

2008-11-23T09:11:00.001-08:00

The Eagles have been the laughing stock of the NFL this week. Not only did they barely hang on to a tie versus the Bengals, a team they should have shredded, but QB Donovan McNabb admitted to not understanding the overtime rule as implemented during the regular season. For the humiliation suffered on both accounts you have to figure the Eagles to be coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder.

The Ravens’ defense likes to present itself as big, bad and scary, but last week the Giants took a giant sized Edgar Allen Poe right on their heads, rushing for over 200 yards. The week before that the Texans ran the ball for a spiffy 4.7 yards per carry against them. Sure, the Ravens still have the 4th highest rated run defense by my numbers, but they’re no impregnable fortress, as the last two weeks have shown. Against the pass I have the Ravens’ defense ranked 11th, but that’s mostly on the back of some really good defensive games early in the season. In their last 6 games, they’ve only held one team to under 6 yards per pass attempt, and that team was the dreadful Raiders. As a matter of fact, the Ravens have given up 6.8 yards per attempt on average for their last 6 games.

The Ravens’ backsliding defense now hosts an unfavorable match up with the Eagles’ offense. The Eagles have been below average running the ball all year, but have an offense that doesn’t need to run it much to win. The Eagles in their last two games have faced a pass defense ranked better than the Ravens, the Giants, and one that’s only slightly worse, the Bengals, who’ve played equally well versus the pass over their last 6 games by comparison. I mention these last two opponents because the Eagles underperformed throwing the ball versus these two teams, averaging 5.45 yards per pass. In their four games prior to that they’d averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt. At worst, the Eagles should get near 6 yards per pass attempt, and I project them to do much better than that at 6.9 yards per pass attempt as the Ravens’ secondary has been getting progressively more injured over the course of the season, while the Eagles’ offense has been getting healthier (with the exception of Pro Bowl guard Shaun Andrews who has been out for quite a few weeks now).

The Eagles should have their fair share of offensive success with the pass and score some points. Will the Ravens be able to match their success offensively? The answer appears to be no, as the Ravens lack the majestic presence in the sky to match the Eagles. Joe Flacco is, by all measures, a success story this year, but you need to look at his individual performances to see the real picture here, and the picture is this: Flacco can pass on poor pass defenses, but not on good ones. Okay, it’s a pretty simple picture – one that a slow kindergartner could have sketched in a few minutes, but it’s the truth. Flacco has yet to throw for over 6 yards per pass attempt versus an above average pass defense this year. Not only do the Eagles have the 9th ranked pass defense, they’re number one at sacking opposing quarterbacks, and Flacco has been known to take his share of sacks. Heck, even the Browns sacked him twice, and they don’t sack anybody. The Texans, a below average pass rushing team, dropped him 3 times two games ago. The Giants only got him once last game, but Flacco threw 2 interceptions, so any game planning that involved taking less sacks may have directly translated into throwing more interceptions. The Ravens will likely be without starting left tackle Jared Gaither this week, and may slide right tackle Adam Terry over to take his place. Offensive line shuffling is rarely a good thing, even less so versus a team that brings the kind of pressure the Eagles do.

Can the Ravens pick up the slack by running the ball? Not likely. The Eagles’ run defense seems to have a threshold that causes opponent’s run offenses to slide pretty sharply to one side or the other. Most good running teams have gained about 5 yards per carry versus them, while average to poor running teams only go for about 2.8. Even a normally good running team like the Falcons only gained 3.2 yards per carry on them. The Ravens are just average running the ball, and the Eagles will be defending the run first as long as the game is within reach for either side, so except the Ravens’ yards per carry to be at the lower end of the threshold.

Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh spent 10 years as a coach with the Eagles prior to taking the head coaching position this year. Will familiarity be an advantage for him and his team? Maybe a little, but not enough to alter the spread for the game (unless they prove otherwise, lol).

In summary, the Ravens and rookie Joe Flacco will have a hard time gaining yards and points versus the Eagles’ stingy defense – a tricky blitzing defense known to give fits to inexperienced quarterbacks. The Eagles’ passing game should have enough success to win the game even if the running game gets shelved somewhere along the way.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Ravens 17

Bills @ Chiefs Week #12

2008-11-22T18:04:00.001-08:00

Week #12 finds the Bills, who started the season 5-1, at 5-5, which the simple math will tell you is a 4 game losing streak, including one loss a piece to each of their divisional foes. A real cause for concern has been the steadily declining play of QB Trent Edwards, who instead of looking like a Stanford graduate looks more like someone cramming for his GED in between offensive series. Last Monday night versus the Browns he seemed completely unsure of where and when to throw the ball even with the 4-alligator pass rush count the Browns were giving him. 2 of the 3 interceptions he threw on his first 6 pass attempts were clearly his fault. Still, the Bills had a chance to win the game with a makeable field goal at the end (wide right!) because the Browns have continued under Brady Quinn to be goal line teases, only 25th best at converting in the red zone.

This week the Bills are on the road at Kansas City. As bad as the Kansas City defense has been, it’s really not much worse than the Browns at this juncture, so there’s little reason to be optimistic that the Bills’ offense will suddenly return to early season form even though facing one of the worst defenses in the league. They had 20 points scored on offense versus the Browns and should get very near the same amount this week. In their favor is the fact that the Chiefs’ special teams coverage hasn’t been special so there’s a chance of a kick return score just like they had versus the Browns.

The most notable absences in the Chiefs’ defensive starting line up will be linebackers Donnie Edwards and Pat Thomas. The Bills’ defensive injuries include safety Donte Whitner (out) and safety Bryan Scott (questionable) which means there’s a 50% chance that the Bills will have 2 second stringers starting at safety this game. Their best (and looking like only at this point) pass rusher, Aaron Schobel, will be out again as well.

Offensively, the Bills will more than likely get starting WR Josh Reed back. If he’s near 100% I guess we’ll find out how much better the Buffalo passing game is with him back in the line up, as Hardy was ineffectual in replacing him and was benched in favor of Steve Johnson who played solidly with 3 receptions last game. #1 Receiver Lee Evans didn’t have a single catch on Monday night. Injuries along the offensive line have been doing no favors to the Bills as well, but those ailments seem to be clearing up. Honestly, this game is shaping up to be the litmus test as to whether Trent Edwards continues as the Bills’ QB of the future, because the grumbling in Buffalo is getting louder every week. If Edwards can’t get it done with his offense healthy versus a bottom-dwelling defense I don’t see how a full-blown QB controversy will not exist with this team once again.

The Chiefs, well aware that they have a largely non-existent pass rush with only 6 sacks on the year will do the same thing defensively that the Browns did -- rush 3 or 4 players while disguising coverages and hope Trent Edwards continues to make mistakes. The Chiefs, in spite of their poor record, have been really good at getting turnovers this year.

Offensively, the momentum the Chiefs have been building since Tyler Thigpen became the default QB starter and the spread offense he’s comfortable with running should continue in this game. In the spread with 2 tight ends lined up as receivers they’ve still been able to run quite a bit and their run game has improved dramatically facing defensive fronts forced to stretch themselves thinner from sideline to sideline. 3 of these 4 games have been without Larry “The Loogie” Johnson, as well. He returned last week and the Chiefs had another solid running game versus the Saints. The Chiefs’ passing game did have its’ worst outing in 4 weeks last game, but they should bounce back nicely this week versus an average Buffalo pass defense. WR Mark Bradley is listed as “?” though, for what it’s worth. Offensively, the Chiefs are playing better than the Bills in both facets right now, and if you can say that one team of two who have both lost their last 4 games has any kind of momentum, it’s the Chiefs.

The Bills are at a disadvantage coming in on a short week of rest, preparation and travel to face an offense unlike anything else they’ve seen this year. If the Chiefs can limit the Bills to good, but not multiple great kick returns Sunday (which won’t be easy, truthfully) I like their new found balanced offensive success to propel them to a home victory.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 21 – Chiefs 23

Texans @ Browns Week #12

2008-11-22T12:03:00.001-08:00

“Defenseless” – The Week 12 Movie Starring the Texans and Browns

When the Browns’ 25th ranked rush defense is the highest ranking group of the Browns’ and Texans’ combined rush and pass defenses, you know you’re not going to sit down to a game of field position in Cleveland come Sunday. The Browns’ 29th ranked pass defense, and the Texans’ 26th ranked run defense and 27th ranked pass defense all at least share the honor of not being amongst the 3 lowest rated groups in the league. Both teams are known for poor tackling. If football were fishing these two teams would return home after 30 minutes of unsuccessfully trying to open the tackle box, without a single cast into the water.

Having quickly established that defense will not be at a premium, which offense will best capitalize on the capitulating defenses? Curtly, the Texans. Both teams have excellent run offenses this year, the Texans ranked 5th and the Browns 4th. Both teams are starting quarterbacks who were not the starters at the beginning of the year. The Texans, because of injury. The Browns, because of “What the Hell, we suck this year so we might as well see what Brady Quinn can do.” Both replacements have been pretty good so far, though Sage Rosenfels has been far more careless with the ball, though he does throw for a much higher yards per pass. The Texans throw (by my rescored stats) for 7.3 yards per pass, while the Browns throw for 5.8. That’s a pretty significant advantage, and one I’ll bet on.

Not only do the Texans have the advantage in the passing game, they should have the advantage in the running game for a couple of reason. One, Jerome Harrison, the quick back who’s had some big runs for the Browns this season, including a 72 yarder for a touchdown versus the Bills last week, is freshly injured and is looking doubtful for this week. That takes away the one two punch the Browns have utilized successfully this year with Jamal Lewis. The Texans have developed their own successfully running back combo with the speedy rookie Steve Slaton and the “I can’t believe he’s not still injured” short yardage back Ahman Green. The Texans rested Slaton a couple of weeks ago versus the Ravens as the rookie was starting to tire out some, and he came back fresh with a big game versus the Colts last week, getting 150+ on the ground.

With a better backfield, more experienced quarterback (keep the turnovers down please, Sage) and equally poor defenses, I like the Texans to get their first road victory of the season this week. On a side note, the Texans do have the worst red zone defense in the league, but Quinn is yet to show a consistent ability to crack the goal line when near it, as the compressed field is generally the toughest place for inexperienced quarterbacks to play well. The Texans are more successful than the Browns in the red zone, so it should balance out pretty evenly.

In spite of the poor defenses and the title of this write up, I don’t like this game to go Over 50 points as both teams figure to run quite a bit. It only takes a few clock-grinding drives ending in short field goals to keep a game under 50 barring multiple large special teams or defensive plays/scores. That being said, I sure as shinola wouldn’t take the Under either, as this game is as likely as any to go for 50 or 60 points this week.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 24 – Browns 23

Week #12 Bengals @ Steelers

2008-11-19T11:41:00.001-08:00

Let me start this by saying that I think the zebras (If they’re to be nicknamed after animals, maybe we should start calling them dodos instead? Honestly, I look forward to the day when refs are no longer needed in any sport, as microchip, laser and video technology should remove the human-error officiating element from sporting events in the glorious future I envision!) will have a great enthusiasm for favoring Pittsburgh with their calls. After last Sunday’s debacle they’d like to leave town safely instead of finding themselves at the bottom of any one of three conveniently located rivers. I personally don’t want to re-regrade a losing bet on Pittsburgh again. Oh the joy of getting the miracle cover (though it should have been an easy cover as Pittsburgh dominated offensively but couldn’t score touchdowns), only to come back minutes later and find a touchdown taken off the board! So yeah, I don’t think we’ll see a 13-1 penalty calls against Pittsburgh disparity this week, unless, of course, they earn them.

I’m confident the Bengals will earn more than one flag, and I’m almost certain they’ll be called for offensive holding at least 2-3 times in this game. The Bengals have obviously not had much to be positive about this season, getting off to an 0-3 start versus very good teams while Carson Palmer was QB, and then going 1-5-1 after Fitzpatrick replaced him. Fitzpatrick has shown some improvement, earning a passer rating a little shy of 90 over his last two games. One thing the Bengals were grateful for, up until last week, was the health of their offensive line. Heading into week #11, the Bengals had started the same 5 on the offensive line all season. Statistically, offensive line continuity is a big plus for any team. Now the Bengals don’t even have that going for them, as both left tackle Levi Jones and left guard Andrew Whitworth were injured last week and are looking doubtful for Thursday. That means just promoted from the practice squad Nate Livings could start at left guard and rookie Anthony Collins could start at left tackle. Ummm, yeahhhh, it’s not looking good for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blindside versus the best and #1 most sack-happy defense in the league. Speaking of technology, I think Ryan’s looking into installing a surveillance camera on the left side of his helmet today. Plus there’s the added stress of it being a road game for him under the spotlights of a nationally televised game. So yes, I foresee an offensive holding or three in this game for the Bengals.

So, offensively it looks like the Bengals will be hard pressed to get the 13.8 points per game they’ve been averaging this year. Still, they’ve got that talented trio of receivers and it only takes a few big plays in a game to get into scoring range a few times, so my numbers have them getting 13 points in this game in spite of the injuries to their offensive line.

The Steelers, for their part, are highly motivated to find the endzone multiple times this week, as they’re currently experiencing a touchdown drought of over 6 quarters in length. The good news is that it hasn’t been due to a lack of yards, so that variance should flatten out with them scoring a minimum of three touchdowns in this game barring a serious downgrade in the weather forecast. They’ll almost certainly have lots of opportunities to do so, as they should fine themselves with good field position to begin many drives. The Bengals should have numerous punts from deep in their own territory which should set the Steelers up near mid-field. The Steelers should have offensive success even when facing a long field ahead of them. In the first match up of these two teams in week #7 the Steelers were without RB Willie Parker. He and the Steelers’ run game got off to a slow start this season in part due to injuries along the offensive line. Those offensive line injuries still exist, but the team is adapting and improving the run since Parker’s return. The Bengals have had a surprisingly decent defense this year, but they’ve been getting progressively more injured since the week #7 game, a game which saw the Steelers reel off a bunch of 4th quarter points en route to a 35-10 victory.

In summary, the Steelers’ offense should be better and the Bengals’ defense worse since their earlier contest, and it’s a home game for Pittsburgh. Of all the games on the board this week, this one has the most potential to get out of hand and turn into a blowout. Not only should Pittsburgh have numerous short fields to work with, it’s highly likely they’ll have at least one extremely short field after a Fitzpatrick fumble or interception, which may be returned for a touchdown, scoring points without even putting the offense on the field. With the low total of 34, it won’t be hard to get this one Over after a couple of big plays in spite of the near-freezing (30% chance snow, 10-15 mph winds) weather.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 13 – Steelers 24

Week #11 Quality Control Table

2008-11-18T11:17:00.000-08:00

15 of 16 on predicted totals, though statistically I shouldn't have done quite that well, lol. A little bit of luck on sides, as I ended up going 10-4-2, though 2 games bet that lost should've been covers: PIT/SD, we all know what happened there, and MIA, victimized by a 95 yard punt return, who statistically covered the 10 point line.

I was even on turnover differential heading into the MNF game, where I had a +4 margin. The Browns covered statistically without the turnovers, so it was really just an even week on luck overall, though it seemed like more bad luck than good. The Cardinals should have crushed the the Seahawks, but turnovers kept it close. The Eagles had a turnover while driving late in the first half which set up the Bengals with their only touchdown of the game -- that's probably a 10 or 14 point swing that cost the cover in that game potentially.

Week #11 Plays & Results

2008-11-17T21:52:00.001-08:00

Another incredibly good week, though it would've been 3 units better if not for getting zebra-humped at the end of the PIT/SD game. Sorry, next time I'll try to find out when the fix is in, lol.

8 for 8 on totals was nice.

Beating Line Moves -- Why You are Getting Paid by Subscribing

2008-11-17T00:01:00.000-08:00

I’ve been posting my plays against the opening lines for 5 years online. It was probably in the second year when I realized that I was consistently beating the line moves. This has continued to be the case. Two years ago I documented for almost the entire season how I consistently beat the line moves. I did so by posting my projections of which way I thought the lines would move when they were first released and then keeping a point tally for and against (and boy did I ever come out miles ahead, lol). I think it’s fair to say (and logical) that my computer based handicapping is giving me similar opening lines to what the sharps and syndicates are also coming up with. They’re the ones betting enough money on the games early in the week to get the lines to move. At thepredictiontracker.com, which I joined at the halfway point last season, I ended up as the second most accurate linesmaker amongst 60 or so competitors for the second half. This year I’m in first or second in the 4 major categories again versus another large field of linesmakers (though I’m not sure how this past week’s 7-7 record versus the sides will affect my standings, as the site hasn’t been updated yet).

Let’s take a look at week #7 alone at the number of points I’ve already saved on line moves (based on internet forum posted plays I’ve made) and put a dollar amount on that for a 100$ a game bettor.

MY PLAY – CURRENT LINE (All Lines from BookMaker) – SAVINGS

TEN -7__TEN -8__+1
TEN/KC Over 35__35__0
BAL/MIA Over 34.5__36.5__+2
NO +3__+3__0
NO/CAR Over 44__44.5__+0.5
NYJ/OAK Under 43__42.5__+0.5
IND/GB Under 48__47__+1
MIN +3__+3__0
DEN +3.5__+3__+0.5
DEN/NE Over 46__46.5__+0.5
DAL/STL Under 44__44__0

That’s a grand total of 6 points saved versus line movements with only 12 games on the board. Most of those line savings occurred within the first day of the lines being released.

The standard rate for buying points is 10% for a half point, and as high as 25% for getting on or off of the most key number, 3. A hundred dollar a game player following my early plays has already saved 120$ versus the currently available lines. That’s counting only a 10% savings for the half point on the Denver play with the juice moving against me on the MIN play and for me on the NO play. The hundred dollar player paid me 15$ for the week and has already profited 105$ in line savings. By doing the math, you can see that even a small 25$ a game bettor would have profited this week already versus line moves after factoring in a 15$ subscription to my service. And it’s not like you’re profiting on line savings only to lose the plays, lol. I’ve been a solid + Units winner every year online, including being up almost 50 average sized bets this year already.

***THE FINAL TALLY OF POINTS SAVED VERSUS LINE MOVES WAS 19.5, WHICH EQUALS A SAVINGS OF NEAR 370$ FOR THE HUNDRED DOLLAR PLAYER***

Saints @ Chiefs Week #11

2008-11-16T10:38:00.001-08:00

“It’s What’s Known as a Mismatch Part II”

Oh when the Saint go marching on the road this year, the marching has turned to martyrdom in every case. They did win in London, however, and rarely has a contingent of Catholic-named crusaders been so cordially courted on the Anglican Isle (I’m still waiting for the Steelers to play there so we can see side by side photos of the two Big Bens every half hour on the NFL network for an entire week). The last time the Saints ventured out of the bayou up into the Midwest was in week #3 versus the Broncos. A Martin Grammatical error cost them the game – anything less than 50 yards is a chip shot in Denver, so his 43 yard miss that would have given them a 1 point lead was inexcusable.

The Saint’s road woes are not attributable to a lack of offense, just a lack of turning those yards into points. Well, that and their defense, which has given up an average of 31.8 points on the road this year. Even in their one lone blowout road loss, 7-30 at Carolina, they still outgained the Panthers in total yards. Drew Brees and the Saints have the highest yards per pass average by my rescored stats this year, and they haven’t even played versus any of the 8 weakest secondaries in the league. That’s impressive. The Broncos are the weakest secondary they’ve played ranked 24th. The Chiefs are ranked 29th and have several injured defensive starters who are both out and questionable coming into this game. Who knows, maybe it’s a bad news/good news situation for the Chiefs. When you’re ranked near last in defense maybe the replacements will bring up your level of play a little. Or maybe the Saints will score on every possession. Not only are the Chiefs the weakest secondary the Saints have faced, the Chiefs are dead last in the league in sack percentage per pass plays defensed, while the Saints are #1 in fewest sacks per passing plays allowed. It’s what’s known as a mismatch, part II.

Deuce McCallister isn’t going to return two punts for touchdowns in a game anytime soon, but he’s a better short yardage back than Reggie Bush, which is something any predominantly passing team needs to convert those short 3rd downs. Running back by committee is really all you need to have decent success versus the Chiefs’ run defense, which is ranked dead last in the league. The weather will be fairly mild by Kansas City mid-November standards, so nothing stands in the way of the Saints having a huge offensive game, except the turnovers and missed field goals that have plagued them in enemy territory. With average luck, it won’t be an issue.

The Chiefs’ offense has undergone a recent resurrection by putting last-man-standing QB Thigpen into a semi-spread offense with many shotgun snaps like the system he played in during his college years. They put up a very impressive amount of yards and points versus a tough Tampa Bay defense in their last home game two weeks ago. RB Larry Johnson returns to the field for the first time in about a month. Note to Saints’ defenders: make sure you settle for no less than a 15 yard penalty if he spits in your face. The Saints’ defense is very vulnerable to the long ball, so expect the Chiefs to attack deep as well – they had a WR option play that resulted in a 40+ yard td pass to no other than QB Thigpen versus Tampa. If the Chiefs fall behind as expected, the second half should be an entertaining air-fest that puts this game Over the total even if the first half scoring has lagged a little behind.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 34 – Chiefs 23

Cardinals @ Seahawks Week #11

2008-11-16T10:37:00.000-08:00

“It’s What’s Known as a Mismatch”

Matt Hasselbeck has been cleared to play for the Seahawks this week. Whoopety-freakin’-do. He will still be throwing the ball to a below average receiving corps. They do get Deion Branch back who hopes to make it through an entire game this season after being out since the first. Their leading receiver as of late has been TE John Carlson, who’s been demonstrating as of late an equally good ability with both catching and dropping balls. Fullback Leonard Weaver will be out again, the one man wrecking crew who beat the 49ers by himself. This Seahawks’ offense is a few good hits away from being the same offense that couldn’t score in the final 3 and 3/4ths quarters of the game versus Philly a couple of weeks ago. The Cardinals are prone to late hits and may lay one on Hasselbeck or Branch just to put them out of the game. Not that I would condone such a thing.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote how teams were loading up to stop the Seattle run after Hasselbeck was injured. Coach Holmgren said as much last week. It will be interesting to see how much respect the Arizona defense will pay to Hasselbeck’s return. I think they’ll still focus on the run until Hasselbeck proves he’s rust-free in this game. Matt did only have a 57.7 passer rating before getting his disc bulged. He has to overcome an injury and his poor play to have a chance of winning this game, which is a pretty tall order. The Cardinals have a fairly solid defense front to back, and have been better at stopping the run than the pass this year (and their pass defense numbers really suffered in that one game versus the Jets when they were missing SS Adrian Wilson). Still, the 49ers were able to move the ball on them last week, so they won’t need Tom Cruise peeling a Mission Impossible mask from his face to have some offensive success.

Where the Seahawks will lose this game, however, is defensively. It’s no secret that the Cardinals’ high-flying passing game has been blessed by no less than the Man Upstairs himself, who surely takes exception to the lack of public nudity laws in Seattle and will continue to smite the Seahawks as a result. Nobody likes to see naked people riding bicycles. The Seahawks’ secondary is like a book of matches, slight of stature just waiting to get burned. Without a pass rush since Patrick Kerney was lost to injury, I’m not sure the Seahawks will have any defensive solutions other than flat out blitzes over and over hoping for the occasional sack, pick, or 3 and out. With time, Kurt Warner could complete passes with the opponent’s entire roster milling about in the secondary. 45% of his career starts have gone for 300+ passing yards? That’s insanely good. As are Fitzgerald, Boldin & Breaston. The Cardinals have the 3rd best yards per pass by my rescored rankings, while the Seahawks have the 8th worst pass defense. It’s what’s known as a mismatch. Hightower has given the Cardinals a spark in the running game this year as well. The forecast has cleared up so weather shouldn’t be an issue at all in Seattle on Sunday. Somebody upstairs is making sure of that.

Speaking of all out blitzes, it was fun to watch the Cardinals line up and shoot the A gap versus the 49ers last Monday. I hope they do some of the same to the Seahawks this week – but I also hope they keep from dangling their numerous appendages over the line of scrimmage this time, as I don’t think the old ticker can stand seeing multiple interceptions called back again.

Cardinals -2.5 was the opening line and 2 units on the Cards was the recommended play, which is now sitting pretty with the line at -3 with varying degrees of juice.

Final Score Prediction: Cardinals 28 – Seahawks 20

Eagles @ Bengals

2008-11-15T18:57:00.000-08:00

The Eagles, as a football team, could be compared to undersized bullies. They pick on weaker opponents relentlessly, but often get punched right back in the face and lose when facing opponents who possess strong running games with powerful backs. The Giants’ run game ground the Eagles to a patriotic pulp last week, showing little respect for the national bird. The Redskins’ potent run offense with Portis also controlled the game in a Philly loss in week #5. The 49ers led late into the game with Gore goring the small Eagles’ defense until a complete and utter meltdown by O’Sullivan in the 4th quarter gave the Eagles a storm from behind cover.

The Eagles’ defense, like the Colts, is one built to play for a team that holds the lead in the second half. Both are small and quick with better secondaries than defensive lines, and indeed their defensive lines are better pass rushers than ground stoppers. The Eagles’ defense feasts on opposing quarterbacks in obvious passing situations as their bevy of blitzes leads to 3.11 sacks and 1 interception per game. Look at poor Ben Roethlisberger who was sacked an astonishing 9 times when trying to lead his team from behind in week #3 (though I think he was injured in that game and may not have taken all of those sacks himself). The Eagles have averaged 4.4 sacks per game in the games they’ve won, and only 1.5 in the games they’ve lost. Clearly, once they’re not so concerned with stopping the run they thrive defensively.

Fortunately for the Eagles’ defense, they’re back to playing a team that is more patsy than powerful. The Bengals have been atrocious this year, and just managed to grab their first victory of the season two weeks ago at home versus the Jaguars before their bye. The Bengals, of course, have been without QB Carson Palmer the last 6 games, and have suffered for it. Palmer had gotten off to a slow start facing 3 of the toughest defenses in the league – the Ravens’, Titans’ and Giants’, but had improved each game and indeed pushed the Giants to overtime before losing. Since Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken over at QB the Bengals have thrown for over 200 yards only once in 6 games and have averaged just 141 yards passing per game, and when you’re trying to make up a deficit for most of the game those are pathetic numbers. Their run offense has improved since bringing in Cedric Benson – they’ve averaged 111 run yards per game and almost 4.5 yards per carry in their last 3. You’d think (though you never know with some coaches) that the Bengals would like to shorten this game with repeated runs by Cedric Benson. If they’re really interested in winning, they need to limit Fitzpatrick’s pass attempts in this game. The Bengals’ QBs have been sacked 3.3 times per game and thrown 1.1 interceptions per game. Fitzpatrick has also been fumble-prone when taking hits in the backfield. Being a fairly inexperienced quarterback, he’s exactly the kind of quarterback the Eagles’ defense could demolish if the run game has to be limited in the second half.

So I expect the Bengals to run as much as humanly possible on offense as that figures to be their best chance for success and serves the added beneficial purpose of shortening the game. Defensively is there anything they can do to limit the Eagles’ offensive weapons? The answer is a maybe leaning towards no. The Bengals have been a fair defensive team this year, certainly better than last year’s injured and inept squad. They’re better at defending the pass than the run, which suits them as the Eagles are better at passing than running. Clearly the Eagles will try to get their run game going versus a below average run defense, as all pass attacks benefit from believable play action. McNabb has gotten off to many slow starts as of late, so maybe the Eagles will come out running for a change. Overall, it will be hard for the Bengals to consistently stop the Eagles’ offense as the Eagles should do better than league average in yards per play for both their running and passing plays. When you can’t cheat with an extra player to stop either the run or the pass, you’re basically at the mercy of the opponent’s offensive execution, and the Eagles have certainly been known to execute, ne assassinate weak defenses over the years. Look for the Eagles to be the bullies on the road again in a similar match up to the one they faced two weeks ago in Seattle. Seattle scored on a 90 yard touchdown pass on their first offensive play of the game, but that was the end of it as the Eagles went on to win 26-7. The numbers indicate this game will be pretty near a carbon copy of that one.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Bengals 10

I'll post two more write ups tomorrow morning, BOL to everyone this week!

Week #11 -- Jets @ Patriots

2008-11-11T14:39:00.001-08:00

I was bullish on the Bills last week, predicting an outright victory at New England. Boy did they make me look bad, lol. As expected, they didn’t get much going on the ground versus the Patriots, but what surprised me was how awful Trent Edwards and the passing game was. Maybe something really did get jarred loose in his head in that concussion he sustained at Saint Louis. Against one of the thinnest secondaries in the league he did almost nothing. Granted, he was without his #2 receiver, but that’s no excuse, there were still plenty of guys to throw the ball to. The defense looked equally inept, letting the Patriots convert third downs over and over. It’s not so much that the Patriots won that game, it’s more that the Bills just flat out lost it.

The Patriots face a divisional rival at home for the second week in a row. They beat the Jets 19-10 at The Meadowlands back in week #2. Things have changed since then. Brett Favre is now running the offensive efficiently, relying more on the 1st and 2nd level passes as of late, and they’re trusting in Thomas Jones and their run game more than they did early in the year. I remember begging into the void for them to run the ball earlier this season, calling Mangenius a Mantard for not doing so more, and it looks like the message finally got through, lol.

There’s really not much detail to go into in this game. It’s as clear as neon paint on a chalkboard – the Jets are better than the Patriots in just about every facet of the game. They run the ball better, they defend the run better. They pass the ball better, they defend the pass better. They sack opposing quarterbacks more while getting sacked less. They have a higher punt yards for average and a lower punt yards against average. They have a higher red zone conversion rate for and a lower red zone conversion rate against. Gostkowski has a stronger leg for more kickoff touchbacks for the Pats. If you rate that higher than all of the previous statistical disadvantages I listed, then by all means bet the Patriots in this game, lol. In spite of all this statistical inferiority the Belichick/Patriots mystique saw them open up as a 4 point favorite in this contest. Yes we jumped it and the line quickly came down. As of this writing the average line is Pats -3 (-120). Just like last week, the sharp money came in early against the Pats.

The Patriots have been winning games by virtue of playing a schedule loaded with weak run defenses. That comes to a halt this week, as the Jets have the 4th ranked rush defense. Cassel will no longer find himself in so many favorable passing situations, and will revert back to getting sacked and making some poor throws like he was doing earlier in the season. Just once this week I’d like to see him take off right up the middle of the pocket and instead of scrambling for a first down get whacked and fumble the ball, lol. Randy Moss missed a lot of plays last week, so his foot was clearly bothering him. With a short week leading up to the Thursday game, I’m not sure how much effective practice time he’ll see, or indeed how healthy his injury will be come Thursday. Getting points in this game is a gift, especially anything 3 or higher, as the numbers once again indicate the Patriots will be upset, and this time it seems even more likely with Brett Favre leading a balanced attack instead of Trent Edwards “leading” a one dimensional passing attack that ended up being hampered by the injuries at WR and the offensive line.

Final Score Prediction: Jets 21 – Patriots 17

Week #10 Quality Control

2008-11-10T23:51:00.001-08:00

As you can see from the stat estimated O/Us and the actual O/Us, we were really unlucky on totals this week, as we should've hit near 71% on total predictions for all games, instead of the 36% that actually hit. The two with the biggest discrepancies were of course two of the favorite totals of the week, the GB/MIN and NYJ/STL Unders. We bet those early and watched the lines sink 3.5 points a piece, which is a huge line change. By the stat estimates they should have gone Under by near 12 and 7 points respectively, though in actuality they both went Over due to pick 6s in both games, additional STL turnovers that set the Jets up with short fields, and a punt return touchdown by the Packers. The side predictions performed poorly, the worst week since I've been keeping track. Yes we lost the turnover battle in 7 of 11 games that didn't have an even turnover ratio, but the total yards and yards per play didn't support winners in most of the games anyway.

One thing I did differently this week was to use the line available when plays were recommended as that was the line we were competing against. If no plays were made on a particular side or total, then a line near the closing line was used.

Week #10 Plays/Final Results

2008-11-10T21:43:00.000-08:00

Blech, didn't love the card except for a few totals this week and the card returned the lack of love right back at me, as we lost the turnover battle in 7 of 11 games, and had all sorts of big non-offensive plays to sink the quality Unders. Still, down 5 units is not much harm as this season has been a fiscal landslide victory, lol.

Week #10 Freebie

2008-11-05T20:58:00.000-08:00

Packers @ Vikings

Here we have a game that features one team that should’ve won last week, but lost, and a team that won handily, but could’ve easily lost. Not surprisingly, the value this week is on the team that really should have won last week, the Green Bay Packers. The Packers outgained the Titans in yards, 390-347, and yards per play, 5.7 to 4.6. They lost by going 1 for 4 in the red zone, turning the ball over twice in Titans’ territory, and failing to convert on 4th and short twice. The Vikings, meanwhile, did have a higher yards per play average than their opponent, the Texans, though fewer yards over all. A +2 turnover ratio was the difference for the Vikings in covering at home.

You’d think the Vikings are a stronger running team than passing team, but that hasn’t necessarily been the case since Frerotte took over at QB, as they’re near league average in both departments, and ranked one spot higher with the pass than the run by my rankings. Clearly Frerotte is able to exploit teams choosing to key defensively on the run, which was something Tarvaris Jackson wasn’t doing well. The Vikings were 0-2 with Jackson, and 4-2 with Frerotte. The Packers have such a good pass defense, however, that they can afford to put an extra man in the box and rely on their man coverage of the wide receivers. Their rush defense, though, is only ranked 28th, and they suffer from occasional gap mistakes, as we saw last week versus the Titans. Still, it’s not a horrible way to defend, I’m thinking (just my observations, lol). It’s better to give up three two yard runs and then a 20 yarder then four yards every rush, as you can force some forth downs when the other team doesn’t hit the big play. The Packers will mostly be playing the same defensive scheme again this week as last, but with a little more pressure in the secondary because the Vikings are more capable of hitting the home run pass than the Titans are. So the Packers should have decent defensive success versus the Vikings, who’ll have to work hard for their points just like the Titans did last week.

The Packers, unsurprisingly, have been offensively better passing than running. They’re widely regarded as the team with the most weapons at the WR and TE positions. The Vikings keyed on limiting Andre Johnson’s success last week, which they did fairly well, but it allowed TE Owen Daniels to have a monster game in both catches and yards. You can’t key on any one of the Packers’ pass threats, as every one of them can beat you for a big play. Jared Allen, sack specialist for the Vikings, will probably miss this game with a probable torn ligament in his shoulder. Extra time in the pocket is not something you want to give Aaron Rodgers, but it looks like he’ll be getting it. The Vikings did run some good corner blitzes versus the Saints earlier this year that resulted in a sack/fumble/td that helped them win the game – they’ll have to rely on pressure from different places to make up for Jared Allen’s absence. Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder still isn’t 100%, and he still suffers from soreness after every game. So far, though, he’s looked pretty good in games so there’s no apparent reason why this week should be any different. As the Packers were able to move the ball in between the 20s well last week versus a better pass defense than the Vikings have, I see no reason why they shouldn’t have decent success again.

Given the offensive match ups, these teams should perform fairly equally, so this game has a high likelihood of coming down to special teams performances, and that is where the Packers have a distinct advantage. They punt the ball better, have better punt coverage, they kick off the ball deeper for more touchbacks, and allow fewer yards per return. The Vikings do have a better kick off return yards average. If you’ll recall, the Packers won the opening week match up thanks to a punt return touchdown, and most of you probably saw the two Reggie Bush punt returns against the Vikings as well. I’m going to go out on a sturdy limb and say that a big special teams play will once again give the Packers a victory versus the Vikings.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 21 – Vikings 20

The Under 45.5 in this game is one of the few playable totals left on the board this week.

Week #9 Quality Control Table

2008-11-04T19:24:00.001-08:00

For week #9 both my Totals and Sides projections fared favorably versus the actual stat estimated final scores. I should have covered 69% of all totals and 57% of all sides based on stat estimates, where in actuality I hit 54% of all totals and 71% of all sides -- so good luck on the sides, poor luck on the totals. The most grievous play on a total that should have won but didn't was the Under 41 DAL/NYG, as the stat estimated final score should have been 13-21 Giants, but turnovers gave some short fields including a pick 6 resulting in a 14-35 final score. Funny, as that was a play I wasn't showing any value in, but was betting a gut play against the Cowboys' offense with Brad Johnson. Once in a blue moon my gut is correct, lol. The luckiest winning play was on the Vikings, as the stat estimated final score had them losing 24-25.

Week #9 Results, Yessssssssss!

2008-11-03T21:05:00.000-08:00

Week #9 marks the 4th week in the last 7th where I've been over +10 units, with this being the best week of the season +24.4 units, bringing the season tally to +66.7 Units.

Record Setting Sunday

2008-11-02T20:39:00.000-08:00

Every now and then a pat on the back seems perfectly okay. Today, 11/02/08 saw my posted subscriber plays go for +20.2 Units (as long as the Steelers don't lose by more than 67 points tomorrow, that is, as that will cash a Grand Salami Away Teams bet), which is +23.3 averaged sized bets, with the largest bets of the day being no more than 2 units. We need >24 points tomorrow to cash a Grand Salami Over, and the Steelers +8.5 to finish off a teaser. This season is already rivaling my best ever, and we're only halfway through it. I've traditionally been pretty strong down the stretch, so subscribe now -- it's truly the best deal in NFL handicapping available!

Week #9 Subscriber Only Write Ups

2008-11-02T20:37:00.000-08:00

Ravens @ Browns

Any game involving the Ravens will inevitably be labeled as “physical,” and this one versus the division rival Browns will be no different, lol. The Browns will seek revenge from a week #2 loss that saw them play okay but lose as a more or less result of two interceptions thrown by Anderson. Anderson and the Browns have been putting it together on offense in recent weeks since getting some players back. They’ve won as 7 point dogs versus the Giants and Jaguars, while narrowly losing a game versus the Redskins in which they were badly outgained. They really struggled offensively versus the best defense of those 3 teams I just mentioned – the Redskins. Here they face a Ravens’ defense with similar, and slightly better, numbers than the Redskins. The one thing they’ll have going for them this game are the numerous injuries to the Baltimore secondary, the same thing that cost Baltimore many a game last year. The Ravens’ pass defense has actually been pretty average after the second week of the season. That coincides with the injury to safety Dawan Landry. It would appear that Jim Leonhard taking his place has been a significant drop in skill at the position. Landry will be back in a week or two. CB McCallister, a 2 time Pro Bowler, has been dealing with injuries and it looks like he may be done for the year. Aging and perpetually gimpy Samari Rolle may be back for this game. If you like watching a cornerback running 2 steps behind the receiver, tune in if Samari sees significant playing time. Any DB guarding a Cleveland WR will be giving up a step, actually.

I better slow down before I talk myself out of the Ravens, lol. I am making a case for the fact that the Browns will be able to score some points in this game, though. No one has had a successful running game versus the Ravens in quite some time (26 consecutive games without giving up a 100 yard rusher, I believe?), so the Browns will need to air it out to win this game, and they are blessed with weapons for just such an attack. The Browns’ vertical passing game will help the Over in this game.

So you can mark the Browns down for about 17 points (minimum) versus a defense that allows 18.8. How will the Ravens’ offense fare? Even better. They have the luxury of having match up advantages in both the running and passing games, offensively. I project the Ravens to do better than league average in both yards per run and yards per pass, though their biggest advantage will be running the ball. As the Browns will have to defend the run first on most non-obvious passing downs, Flacco should find comfortable gaps in the defense to throw the ball to when passing, and play action should be particularly effective. Teams that run the ball well have a big advantage offensively because the quarterbacks will find themselves under less pass-rushing pressure with fewer defenders in the secondary time after time. The Titans didn’t have a great game running the ball versus the Colts last week, as the Colts were committed to stopping the run, but as a result, Kerry Collins found many soft spots to throw to and completed enough passes to keep drives alive and win the ball game. Flacco also has a strong arm and can throw an accurate deep ball, so both of these teams have home run potential on any given play. Just like the Titans knew the Colts were defending the run first and so came out passing the ball more on early downs, so will the Ravens. Offenses have to punish defenses who over-commit to stop either the run or the pass.

Clearly Flacco has had some road woes this year, hurting his team with costly turnovers. It’s a positive sign, though, that he had his best passing game of the season in his last road start at Miami, and followed that up with another good outing last week versus the Raiders. The rookie QB, like Matt Ryan, is showing improvement in his play both at home and on the road.

Putting the pieces together, the Ravens should have a good offensive day due to their now more balanced attack versus a below average Browns’ defense. The Browns will run the ball as long as they’re mildly successful or failing that, just enough to keep the Ravens’ defense honest. Yes, it’s true that Jamal Lewis had a good yards per carry average on only 12 carries versus the Ravens in week #2, but good luck maintaining that average for 20+ carries, as recent history suggest that will be a near impossibility. The Browns may talk run, but they have to know that to beat the Ravens they’ll need to do what the Colts did a few weeks ago and exploit the only advantage they have in this game, their speedy TEs and WRs versus an injured and statistically declining Ravens’ secondary.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 22 – Browns 17 (with Matt Stover kicking 5 field goals for the Ravens, lol)

The weather forecast as of Friday still looks pretty mild, so any number under 37 is a gift for the Over. Close games like this one rates to be feature teams trying to score all the way until the final possession, and as I like to point out, a 17-17 tie at any point is a winner on any Over below 37 barring a scoreless OT.

Eagles @ Seahawks

After last week’s blowout of the 49ers, the Seahawks are backkkkkkkk…ack…cough…hack…cough. Uttering such a phrase nearly caused me to choke on my own vomit! Last week’s victory was a false win, if ever NFL history has seen one – a completely misleading final score. The Seahawks won by passing for more yards than the 49ers, right? Enh! (incorrect buzzer sound) They threw for 42 yards less, but did have a higher yards per pass average thanks to the 102 yards gained on 2 touchdown passes to fullback Leonard Weaver. Leonard Weaver, you can’t shut him down, you can only hope to contain him. I guess his neon green shoes aren’t just flashy, they’re toxic as well, as Leonard finds himself questionable with a foot injury heading into this week’s game. Not only was Leonard the Seahawks’ leading receiver by a more than 2 to 1 margin, he was almost their leading rusher in the game with 2 carries for 13 yards. No, that is not a misprint. The Seahawks’ leading rusher last week was M. Morris who gained 16 yards on 11 carries. As a team the Seahawks gained 39 yards on 28 attempts for a paltry 1.4 yards per carry. Seattle was outgained by 127 yards in their 21 point victory last week. They had the luck of playing against the Irish O’Sullivan, a turnover machine unlike the NFL has seen in quite some time. O’Sullivan, of course, was benched before even reaching the half by new coach Mike Singletary, who apparently suffered so much stress-induced weight loss during said first half that his trousers slipped right off his torso during his halftime pep chewing out.

The simple truth is that since Matt Hasselbeck was lost to injury, opposing defenses have been defending the run first versus the Seahawks, which is why they’ve averaged 85 rush yards per game in their last 3, versus the 143 per game they had before losing their starting QB. Their first 4 games average was bolstered considerably by the 245 rush yards they gained versus the Pre-Haslett Rams in week #3.

The 49ers have a pretty good run defense, ranked 8th by my rescored numbers, but the Eagles flying into town have been even stronger, ranked 4th. It doesn’t look good for the Seattle ground game. Can still starting Seneca make passing pie out of the crabapple castoffs running routes for him? I don’t see how. Take away the 2 TD tosses to the fullback last week and you’re left with pretty meager pass statistics, and that was versus an average 49er pass defense. The Eagles have the 9th ranked pass defense. The last time the Seahawks faced a top 10 pass defense was in Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago where Seneca ended up passing for 73 total yards. That was Seneca’s first start of the season actually. In the Seahawks’ last home game 3 weeks ago, Charlie Frye got the start. The result? Also less than 100 yards passing versus the Packers. Call me a cold-hearted skeptic and believer in the bald-faced stats, but I don’t see how on earth the Seahawks are going to manage to put together many scoring drives versus a Philly defense ranked in the top 10 versus both the pass and rush.

So if the Seahawks will be hard pressed to score, can they turn the game into a defensive battle and cover thusly? Their run defense has been okay this year, giving up 122 yards per game and a little less than 4 yards per carry by my rescored stats. The Eagles’ rush attack has been improving in recent weeks, culminating in the 193 yards they picked up versus the Falcons last week. Granted, the Falcons don’t have a good run defense, but the Eagles have played many teams that do. By my numbers the Eagles have faced the 5th toughest schedule of run defenses in the league so far this year. The Eagles have already played against 5 teams with near equal or better run defenses than the Seahawks have.

The Seahawks will also be without their star DE, Patrick Kerney, for the first time this season. He’s their sack leader with 5 this season, one ahead of LB Julian Peterson. With a weakened pass rush, can the Seahawks’ secondary cover well enough to limit the Eagles’ passing game? I’m going to have to go with a big fat NO on this one, as the Seahawks actually have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, ranked 27th, while the Eagles have the 9th ranked pass offense, a ranking achieved for the most part without 2 of their top receivers, Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis, who will both suit up and be ready for this game. TE LJ Smith will sit this one out due to a concussion – he also missed a couple of games earlier in the season. When one team is projected to do better than league average in both yards per carry and yards per pass, that’s a recipe for defensive failure for the opponent, in this case the Seahawks, as there is very little they can do to shut down any aspect of the Eagles’ offense. About the best they can hope for is that the 60% chance of showers turns into 100% chance of showers and that the 12-17 mph wind turns into a 30-40 mph constant Tsunami wind. Only they don’t have natural grass a la Heinz Field so they still won’t have much hope of turning it into a 3-0 final score in 4 inches of muddy grass chunks.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 31 – Seahawks 13

Patriots @ Colts

The Bucs continue their western trek by pointing the compass north from Dallas to Kansas City this week. They’re hoping their fortunes are pointing up as well, as an inability to score a single touchdown on 262 offensive yards last week meant they scored in the single digits (9 points) for the first time this season, as well as being only the second time they’ve scored less than 20 this season. They outgained the Cowboys by 90 yards, so it was a particularly stinging loss for a team needing every win possible in the resurgent NFC South this year.

The Chiefs return to Arrowhead after taking the Jets to the wire last week, giving up the game losing score with a minute to play. They had their second best offensive game of the year, accruing 330 yards. Defensively, they were still one of the worst in the league, surrendering 421 yards. How bad has their run defense been? They’ve allowed a whopping 198 yards rushing per game to opponents this year. Not good news when you’re facing the Bucs’ 9th ranked rush attack. The Bucs will not have Warrick Dunn available for this game, as the Bucs are planning on resting the pinched nerve in his back after giving him limited carries last week. Gruden regretted playing him at all last week, he was quoted as saying. That means Earnest Graham will continue to get the bulk of the carries, as well as playing as a blocking full back occasionally, the Bucs are so thin at RB right now. Still, it’s not a huge concern, as running against the Chiefs requires nothing more than any old run of the mill running back holding onto the ball and running downhill through a gaping hole.

Larry Johnson and Spitgate continue to be news in KC. Apparently coach Edwards is so down on LJ right now that he’s going to continue benching him without the league or the law mandating him to do so. The carries, therefore, will continue to be handled by Kolby Smith. 3rd stringer Jamaal Charles is banged up and “?” to go, so the Chiefs clearly have plenty of running back woes of their own. The Chiefs have only gotten more than 102 yards rushing in a game twice this season – 184 versus the Falcons, and 214 versus the Broncos – two teams with sub-par run defenses. The Bucs have the 6th rated run defense, so the Chiefs will be hard pressed to have any success on the ground in this match up.

An interesting development that should affect what we see in this game is the semi-spread offense the Chiefs went with last week. As their offense and season have been so poor, they had nothing to lose by trying something new last week with the mobile Thigpen back at QB. They ran some no-huddle and shotgun rollouts, the kind of offense Thigpen played in college at Coastal Carolina. As they rate to be playing from behind for the entire 2nd half, odds are they’ll do it again this week in an effort to gain ground versus the Bucs, who oddly enough were the 3rd worst team in the league last year when defending 5-wide sets. Still, the Bucs have the 5th ranked pass defense, and Thigpen may not be able to avoid any turnovers two weeks in a row.

The Bucs have not had a particularly explosive passing game this year, ranking 19th. Their best/only deep threat, Joey Galloway, has been hampered by injuries. Still, they’ve got some solid pass-catching tight ends and wide receivers. WR Antonio Bryant is having a career-resurrecting season with a combination of good on the field play and no off the field blunders. The Chiefs defensively are again near the bottom of the pack with the 31st ranked pass defense, with only the Lions being worse than they.

Clearly the Bucs have the advantage in just about every imaginable match up. The Chiefs had one of the strongest punters in the league with Dustin Colquitt, but he’s sidelined with a groin injury right now. They’ve also switched kickers, and just added a new long snapper. If any team in the league is primed to have a blocked or botched punt/field goal attempt this week, it’s the Chiefs. They figure to have a lot more punt attempts than field goal attempts this week, so the Bucs could find themselves with very favorable field position on more than one occasion. This will help the Over. The Chiefs have given up 34 points or more in 3 of their 7 games this season – this will help the Over. The Chiefs will most likely run their variation of the spread with the no-huddle and shotgun for the second week in a row, this will help the Over. As of this writing, there are still 36.5s available on the board, which is on the right side of 37 when betting the Over. The weather will be mostly cloudy with 12-17 mph winds, not poor enough conditions to affect the offenses, really. I recommended the Over 37 earlier in the week for 1 Unit. Now that the Chiefs will be running an offense more conducive to the Over (and Bucs starting SS Phillips is out with a broken arm), there is even more value on the Over. I’d recommend taking an additional half Unit on the Over 36.5.

Final Score Prediction: Bucs 31 – Chiefs 13

Week #9 Freebie

2008-10-29T21:03:00.001-07:00

Patriots @ Colts

Some may attribute the Patriots’ impressive 5-2 post-Brady record to coach Belichick’s brilliance and gutsy play from the rest of the entire “I am not Tom Brady” roster. Certainly they are still solid in the trenches and at wide receiver. But are they as good as their 5-2 record would indicate?

Last week I predicted that the game in Foxboro versus the lowly but “now with a pulse” Rams would be played to a standstill. Indeed, the game was back and forth and tied until the Patriots’ scored the winning touchdown with 3 minutes left in the game. Unfortunately for the Rams, the only bruising their bestial running back, Steven Jackson, would be dealing with that day would be with the large one on his thigh, as he ended up sitting out as a game time decision. Still, the Rams were right there in the thick of it, and actually just outgained and out-yards-per-played the Pats by a very small margin.

After just scraping by versus the 3rd worst defense in the league at home, what can we expect out of the Patriots this week at Indy? The Colts bring a league average defense to the game, for starters, and the 10th stingiest pass defense (23rd versus the run). The Patriots have played a very soft schedule of pass defenses so far, the 3rd easiest by my rankings. The top pass defense they’ve faced was the 49ers, ranked 16th, right on the league average of 6.3 yards per pass play allowed (by my rescored stats). In spite of playing against 3 better than average run defenses this year; the 49ers’, Dolphins’ and Jets’, the Patriots have still faced the 1st or 2nd weakest schedule of rush defenses of anyone in the league by virtue of also playing against the Chiefs, Broncos and Rams. In spite of the incredibly soft defensive schedule, the Patriots have not excelled versus an opposing defense’s allowed averages against anyone this year, the lone exception being the huge running week they had versus the Broncos’ battered and bewildered defense. In that game, they still threw for an average per pass far below what the Broncos normally allow. As a matter of fact, the Patriots have failed to gain more yards per pass play than an opponent typically allows even once this year. Assuming then, that they have an average at best (for them) day offensively, can the defense help them out enough to cover or win in Indy?

Umm, no. I have the Patriots ranked 19th versus the run, and 24th versus the pass. Hey, that’s not even as good as the Colts’ defense. Any reason to be bullish on the Patriots’ pass defense regardless of their 24th ranking? Umm, double no. This will be their second game without SS Rodney Harrison (IR). Ellis Hobbs, their best cornerback, was injured last game and is expected to miss this week. The other starting CB, Deltha O’Neal, was also injured last week and is “?” for this week. So who is going to step up and fill at least one of those pairs of cornerbacks’ shoes versus Peyton Manning this week? Not CB Lewis Sanders, who missed last game and is doubtful for this one as well. I guess it’s up to Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite. Good luck, rookies!

And how has the Colts’ passing game fared as of late? Rather well, minus the odd interception that the opponent’s seem capable of holding onto, while the Colts themselves cannot. The Colts have faced 3 top 10 defenses in their last 3 games and fared better than those 3 teams (Ravens, Packers, Titans) normally allow in every one. They were average, by the Colts’ standards, early in the year as they dealt with injuries along the offensive line and at TE, not to mention Peyton having to use the first 4 games to substitute for the preseason he missed due to surgery recovery. As they’ve gotten healthier, so has their passing game. By all accounts, they should have beaten the Titans last Monday, as they outgained them in yards and yards per play, but suffered a loss due to the aforementioned inability to hang onto interceptions that may have been pick 6s on two occasions, while the Titans intercepted two, and the 4th and 1 failure at the 50.

So we have an ascending pass offense in the Colts facing a poor and worsened by injury pass defense of the Patriots. Did I mention that Joseph Addai was announced as probable today (Wednesday)? Once the Patriots undoubtedly fall behind on the scoreboard, will their 29th ranked pass offense find enough success versus the 10th ranked pass defense to come back and cover the spread? Not likely. Will the Colts, at home, have revenge on their minds after last year’s home loss? Rhetorical question. The Colts desperately need this game, and will pile it on big time. Even the meek Tony Dungy may engage in a little bit of Belichick run it up belligerence.

Did I mention that Bob Sanders and Kelvin Hayden will be back in the Colts’ secondary? Did I mention…did I mention…

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 14 – Colts 31

Quality Control Tables

2008-10-28T21:57:00.000-07:00

I've just finished making a big table that helps identify the accuracy of my lines based on the total yards and yards per play for each team in it's respective game. It's a simple way to get a ballpark idea of whether my projections would have or would not have covered when compared to statistical averages. The stat estimated final scores are based on league averages of total yards divided by points and yards per play divided by average number of points scored. Like I said, it's not an exact science, but it gives a good general view if you really should or should not have covered on some of the plays. For example, the PHI/ATL and JAC/CLE Overs should have both readily covered where in actuality they didn't. I had a higher cover % on Stat estimated totals than the actual results bore out, but ended up with the same poor 38% on sides. My favorites predicted to cover the spread were pretty awful this week, and it can't all be attributed to turnovers, though 5 of the 7 Stat estimated favorite losers also had a negative turnover differential in their games. Kind of a strong indicator there that favorites, especially large ones, will have a very hard time covering spreads with a negative turnover ratio in their games.

My lines use red zone offense/defense amongst many other things not used in the quickie stat estimated scores I've created here. There are several nuances within each game, including the order in which the points were scored for each team, that lessen the accuracy of these simple total yards and yards per play final score estimations -- but as I said, they're just ballpark estimators. One thing that looks certain is that it appears difficult for teams to cover large spreads on total yards and yards per play alone. The only favorite that did so last week was the Redskins (which, coincidentally, was one of my strongest side values).

I also just added 4 columns on the right end of the table. They represent the point differentials between the stat estimated final scores, my estimated final scores, and the actual final scores based on the fave/dog, O/U opinion I had on each game. You can see that grading my opinions on totals versus the stat estimated lines left me 17 points to the good, whereas grading my opinions versus the actual final scores leaves me almost 8 total points to the bad. Conclusion? Poor luck on totals over all. Looking at the sides, I was -15 points to the bad on stat estimated final scores versus my final score estimations, but a whopping -83 points to the bad on my opinions versus the final scores. Lots of bad luck involved on many of the sides (the correlation to turnover ratio in each game rears it's ugly head), which has caused me to drop from 1st place on the error measurements at thepredictiontracker.com to much further down in the pack over the last 2 weeks. The correlation between turnovers and the difference between my lines and the final scores was a very high .77 in this table -- lots of turnovers against equalled big negative points on my lines versus the final scores.

In the turnover columns, there is one discrepancy as I had TEN to slightly cover the spread, but my only play on sides in the game was a 1/2 unit ML play on the Colts -- which based on the stat estimations should have won!

And boy howdy, the Bucs really should have beat the Cowboys by 6 points, almost right on my projected final score margin of 7. I've had several frustrating games over the last few weeks where the dogs have outgained the favorites, yet lost and failed to cover.

Week #8 Points Saved on Line Movements

2008-10-27T21:10:00.001-07:00

20.5 Total points saved -- A little over 400$ saved for a 100$ player.

Week #8 Final Results

2008-10-27T21:08:00.001-07:00

It's the Turnovers, Stupid.

2008-10-27T09:50:00.000-07:00

It was a + Units day yesterday, in spite of feeling like I had more bad luck than good. Well, I just verified the bad luck with a table here, and will continue to do so every week from here on out, because it's important to gauge how much the wins and losses were due to bad luck, and how much due to poor handicapping.

The morning games, which saw us standing at +10.4 Units after completion, had a fairly even break of turnover luck (-2 on all sides, +0 on sides played). The afternoon games gobbled up a large portion of the morning profits, leaving us at +4 Units for the day. A big reason? The failure to force even a single turnover by any team that I'd picked to cover the spread, including 3 home teams of the 4 games played. In the 3 games with recommended wagers the turnovers were 9-0 against. Yeah, that's pretty awful luck.

Write Ups for Subscribers - Week #8

2008-10-26T19:31:00.000-07:00

I did these three write ups for subscribers on Friday, and I posted them at kickoff in the forums. Thought I'd post them here, as these 3 games plus the freebie with the Saints ended up being my best games of the week, lol.

Redskins @ Lions
The Lions have covered the spread the last two weeks, both times in losing efforts. In Minneapolis two weeks ago they somehow managed to lead for most of the game versus the Vikings until giving up a game losing field goal late in the contest. I say “somehow” because they were outgained 212 to 392 yards. Yup, they were almost doubled up in yards and only lost by 2 points (the very two points the Vikings scored when Orlovsky rolled out of the pocket in the endzone and right out of bounds for a good ten yards. You’ll have to excuse Orlovsky, though, as it was his first start in the NFL). Hmm, methinks a turnover differential must have come into play…(checking game book)…yup, 3 Viking turnovers to the Lions 1. Last week the Lions outscored the 4th quarter coasting Texans 11-0 in said 4th quarter to only lose by 7 (pushing the opening number wager on the Texans I recommended. Getting the early lines made a difference in a lot of games last week, more so than usual). The big play for the Lions was a 94 yard pitch and catch to Calvin Johnson versus a dinged up and deficient Houston secondary. Even with that field-spanning play they were still outgained 326 to 404 yards. Take that play away and they were 30 yards within being doubled up in yards by a Texans’ team that couldn’t be bothered to score for a cover in the 4th quarter. Orlovsky hasn’t been completely miserable in replacing Kitna by virtue of starting against two subpar pass defenses. No such luck this week as he faces the #4 ranked pass defense of the Redskins. At least he gets a home start this week, though I’m not sure how interested Detroitians are in the Lions right now, and any fans showing up may be left with little to cheer for beyond lessened exit traffic due to a steady, coordinated exodus beginning in the 3rd quarter if this game gets out of hand early (and it’ll take a lot of luck for the Lions for it to not to).

The Redskins have been dealing with a few injuries to their defense, but they are injuries they’ve been dealing with the entire season, so their stats are fairly indicative of the level of play they’ll be capable of in this game. The Lions had a couple of injuries to their offensive line a couple of games ago, but as of last week were starting the same week #1 line with the exception of Damion Cook taking over the starting LG position from 10 year man Edwin Mulitalo. The Redskins offensive line has been healthy this season (as opposed to the disastrous early season injuries they suffered last year), with the only shake up being Jon Jansen starting at RG the last few weeks instead of Stephen Heyer, though both players are rated fairly equally, if I’m not mistaken.

I’ll dispense with the gory match up disadvantages for the Lions in this game, and head straight to the numbers. Redskins’ #2 run offense vs. Lions’ #30 run defense. Redskins’ #18 pass offense vs. Lions’ #32 pass defense. Lions’ #20 run offense vs. Redskins’ #7 run defense. Lions’ #24 pass offense vs. Redskins’ #4 pass defense.

I think the Redskins will be plenty motivated to maintain a healthy lead in this game, as they’ve seriously underachieved in turning their offensive yards into points the last two weeks, letting the Rams hang around and beat them at the buzzer, while narrowly beating Cleveland after the Browns missed a long game-tying field goal at the end of the game last week. They outgained the Rams by 168 yards, and the Browns by 115. Neither of those games should’ve been as close as they ended up being. Against the Lions’ poor defense and 26th ranked red zone defense, they can’t help but convert more of those yards into points while severely limiting any offensive success on the part of the Lions. All we need is an average amount of luck and an average amount of effort from these two teams for the Redskins to cruise to a 14 point victory.

Final Score Projection: Redskins 27 – Lions 13

Rams @ Patriots
It looks the inflated Patriots’ point spreads won’t be abating anytime soon, as the whole football loving nation saw them pulverize a Broncos squad that grew more injured and butterfingered as the game progressed. Honestly, the Broncos lost about 1/3 of their starting defense, including both their corners, before the game was over. While Cassel struggled to complete anything other than wide receiver screens early in the game, he was actually able to complete a few passes that were thrown more north to south than east to west after the Baileys (Champ and Boss – with those names you’d think they’d be brothers) and Bly were on the sidelines. When, not if, Cassel’s services are no longer required by an NFL team, he’d be wise to look for work in the Canadian league where they’ve got those extra wide fields, as opposed to the Arena league where’s it all about throwing it downfield. With the exception of one long ball to Moss in the game at SF, Cassel mostly panics, scrambles, and gets sacked when the play call doesn’t involve a throw made within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. I can only hope the Rams are prepared for those wide receiver screens…

I mean, GOOD GRIEF, take an already bad defense, put them in a short bus and have them crash into a cement culvert, put them back on the field and have them play another half of football – that’s basically what the Patriot offense was playing against last week. ANY quarterback can play okay with a huge lead, look no further than Kerry Collins for proof of that. If Kerry had been suiting up for the Lions this season I don’t think he’d be seen as the middle-aged Messiah some may view him as now. It was the perfect storm of injuries and turnovers that made the Patriots look like a legitimate contender and worthy of being 7 point home favorites versus the Rams this week.

Well, the numbers aren’t buying it, because the numbers have this game as pretty darn near a pick, actually favoring the Rams in an upset. The Patriots lost another RB, hard-running Sammy Morris, and are down to who…third down specialist Kevin Faulk now? That’s fine, he’ll still probably have as much success as Sammy because the Patriots have been run blocking pretty well since realizing that they need to in order to win games without Brady. The one significant concern with the Rams coming into this game is the status of Stephen Jackson’s injured thigh. He barely saw the practice field this week, but odds are he’s being saved and protected to play in this game, in spite of coach Haslett’s assertion that Jackson is 50/50 to take the field. The Rams’ run defense has been pretty awful this year, ranking 29th by my systems, so the Patriots should have the advantage in the rushing match ups this game, regardless of who gets the touches for them.

In the passing game we’ve got Pro Bowl caliber (at times) Marc Bulger versus the aforementioned clipboard carrying caliber Cassel. The Rams have been thin at WR all year, and so have been relying heavily on veteran Tory Holt and emerging rookie Donnie Avery. The Patriots, of course, have a fantastic duo in Randy Moss and Wes Welker, the most dangerous 1, 2 punch in wide receiver screens in the league, lol. The Patriots’ pass defense has been a little better than the Rams’ this year (20th versus 24th ranked), but will now be without wily (read dirty) old-timer Rodney Harrison at safety. I have the Rams projected at being 1 yard better per pass plays, averaging 5.7 per versus the Patriots’ 4.7. Against a non-existent Bronco defense Cassel still only managed 4.9 yards per pass play.

All told, it looks like the Rams, who’ve shown some heart and improvement since sacking Linnehan for Haslett, will be able to hang around in this game, and may even steal one on the road like they did 2 weeks ago versus the Redskins, as the Patriots are an inferior team to the Redskins in almost every facet of the game.

Final Score Prediction: Rams 21 -- Patriots 20 (I changed the Patriots to be small favorites when Steven Jackson was announced as doubtful.)

Falcons @ Eagles
The Falcons, with their new star running back, Michael Turner, and their new rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan, have become a bit of a sexy team in this 2008 season. Sharps are more interested in cash than sex, however, and the opening line of Eagles -7.5 rose to -9 over the course of a day, though a small bit of the betting furor seemed to coincide with the announcement that Brian Westbrook would be back in the lineup for the Eagles. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a team with a top 10 passing game and a bottom 10 running game experience so much line fluctuation based on the playing status of a running back before, as the Eagles’ pointspreads this year have seemingly ballooned and bombed based on Brian’s status. It’s comical, and perhaps a bit head-scratching, to see that the only time the Eagles’ run game has averaged more yards per carry than their opponent’s normally allow is in the two games that Westbrook didn’t play this season. In the two games without Westbrook the Eagles were +0.9 and +0.8 yards per carry better than their opponent’s average, while with Westbrook starting the best they managed was -0.1 compared to the opponent’s average, and have averaged -0.8 in his four starts (though he didn’t finish at least one of those games he started). Some of this correlation is due to Shawn Andrews’ injury at RG. Still, of the 4 games he didn’t play, 2 were good rushing games without Westbrook, and 2 poor rushing games with Westbrook.

The Eagles’ run defense started off the season in dominating fashion, but has been steadily backsliding in recent weeks. Whether the bye week helps them regain defensive form versus the #3 ranked Atlanta rush offense remains to be seen. The Eagles will want to minimize the Falcons’ running success by playing a fairly up tempo offense in an effort to build a lead that will force the Falcons to pass more often in the second half, where Philly’s aggressive blitz schemes can force the rookie Ryan into mistakes. Philly has a dangerous defense when leading a game late, as evidenced by the turnovers and scores they collected versus the 49ers in the last few minutes of their last game. Philly is more than capable of building a lead with the sizeable advantage they have with the passing matchups, where their 8th rated pass offense faces the Falcons’ 28th rated pass defense. The Eagles can really light it up versus sub-par defenses, they’ve scored 37 or more points in 3 of their 6 games so far this year. They’ve been able do this without the services of WR Kevin Curtis, who returns to the lineup this week, and Reggie Brown (played in one game so far this year), who looks to be recovering well enough from a groin injury to play this week. Though the Eagles have seen an offensive downturn since losing RG Shawn Andrews to a back injury, they’ll have more offensive weapons on the field this week than they’ve seen all year. If the Eagles score the 37 points they look primed to do this week, it’ll be hard for the Falcons to score the 28 points necessary to push the current spread, let alone cover it, as only Dallas has scored more than 26 points versus the Eagles this year, and the Eagles have only allowed an average of 10.7 points in their 3 home games this year. I have the Eagles scoring less than 37 this week, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if they did. I think the Falcons will get within sniffing distance of 20 points, but will not scratch it.

Matt Ryan is no doubt improving and is already looking like a career starter in this league only 6 games into his NFL career. Still, this game will be a very tough test for him and odds are he won’t get the defensive help necessary to cover this number by just managing the game. It’s still a road rookie with a vastly inferior defense versus Donovan McNabb when it’s all said and done.

Final Score Projection: Falcons 17 – Eagles 31

My "Lines & Values" Table

2008-10-24T15:48:00.000-07:00

My "Lines & Values" table, the popular new layout I'd been posting in forums earlier this season, has been available to subscribers for a couple of days now on the private site. FYI in case you've been missing seeing it, lol. Also there is the list of the opening line recommended plays and the number of points saved versus line movements so far this week. As of last count yesterday, the total number of points saved versus line movements was 19.25 for all recommended plays.

Week #8 Freebie

2008-10-21T10:47:00.000-07:00

San Diego and New Orleans in London

The Chargers have twice been pummeled when traveling to the East coast for a 1 pm game this year, both times occurring within the last 3 weeks. What will happen to them when they have to move their clocks up 5 more hours from East coast time for the game in London this week? If you believe in travel fatigue, I’m not sure an NFL team has ever faced more coming into a game than the Chargers this week. It’s not like they were just unfortunate in their prior East coast losses either, they were pretty soundly beaten.

The Saints were pretty soundly beaten when looking at the scoreboard for last week’s game at Carolina. The final score doesn’t tell the real story, though, as the Saints actually outgained the Panthers in total yards. The Saints had two turnovers, while the Panthers had known. If there was unbalanced distribution of turnovers in a game this last week, believe me, I was on the wrong side of it, lol. Last week, both the Saints and Chargers gained 5.5 yards per play, though the Saints did it versus an overall tougher Carolina defense.

Jeremey Shockey, the red neck, blue talking over-rated TE for the Saints, reaggravated the hernia injury that had kept him out of several games. He says he’s currently feeling better and did travel with the team to London, though his status is still “?”. Reggie Bush is out for 3-4 weeks, and that’s an injury with actual negative repercussions for the Saints (as Billy Miller and the somewhat gimpy Mark Campbell are both adequate replacements for Shock Jock), as he’s returned 3 punts for touchdowns and has big play capability either running or catching the ball on offense.

The Chargers’ have been dealing with recent injuries in their wide receiving and linebacker corps, and it looks like those injuries will carry over into this game.

Marques Colston did return from injury for the Saints last week, but didn’t catch any balls. His lack of production was attributed to being out of sync with the offense after his long injury absence.

Neither team is particularly adept at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, though the Chargers are 3 rankings worse at #25. They had no sacks and were not even credited with a quarterback hurry in last week’s loss at Buffalo. I don’t need to tell you what kind of strain their defense is going to be under if they can’t get pressure on Drew Brees, who is already one of the least sacked quarterbacks in football, ranking #2 in sacks allowed per passing plays (my rankings always have #1 as being the most favorable in a category, so the Saints #2 ranking in sacks allowed per passing plays means they allow the second least). The Saints still have the #1 ranked passing game in football, while the Chargers are #3. The gap is wider than the actual rankings though, and I project the Saints to get about one more yard per passing play than the Chargers.

The Chargers’ run game production has dropped markedly this year in no small part due to LT’s troubled toe. Take away a 31 yard reverse by Vincent Jackson last week and you’re left with the running backs only gaining 41 yards via the rush. The Saints run game is where it typically is, near the bottom of the rankings. The Chargers will have the advantage in the run game, but it won’t be enough to counter their disadvantage in the passing game.

The Saints released their punter after last weeks’ loss, and signed Ben Graham to fill his shoes. The Saints’ kicking and punting has been dreadful this year, with both kicker Gramatica and punter Weatherford no longer active in their duties.

This game looks to be settled by the passing match ups, with Drew Brees more capable of success with his current targets than Phillip Rivers is with his.

Final Score Projection: Chargers 23 – Saints 26

Recommend Play: Saints +3

I am showing some value on the Over, but given the forecast of 20+ mph winds with slight precipitation and fairly high humidity, I’d pass on the total, in spite of the air show this game may turn into. If the wind forecast decreases, the Over becomes playable. If the precipitation forecast increases, look out, as the Giants and Dolphins played a very low-scoring game on a muddy natural grass field in London last year.

MNF Props Week #7

2008-10-20T16:13:00.001-07:00

Adding for 1 Unit:

Denver 1st to make a First Down (-135)
This is almost identical to the scenario in the Saints/Vikings game 2 weeks ago where the Saints were highly likely to get the ball first in the game, which they did, and made a First down two plays into the game. The line on this play for the Saints went up to -180 before kickoff.

Over 3 Field Goals (-115 BookMaker -- the same play is -140 at 5Dimes...? lol)
Lots of offense, and two accurate kickers with strong legs.

1/2 Unit:
NE to Make Shortest FG (-120)
The Patriots have a worse red zone offense and defense so far this year.

Denver to score 1st (+115 5Dimes)

Kind of curious that 5Dimes still has this soft of a line when you consider that Denver will almost certainly start the game with the ball and have taken the first possession for a score many times this season (if memory serves).

BookMaker has the line for this play at -105, by comparison.

Went 5 for 5 on MNF props 2 weeks ago, so let's see if lightening strikes twice.

I also like the Under 9.5 punts, but the juice on that is -150 right now, which is rather unappetizing. Still probably has value, though, I might look into it. Okay -- just checked. Both of these teams have 1 game each this year that had more than 9 punts in it. Considering how weak both defenses are the line for this play should be closer to -200.

1/2 Unit: Under 9.5 Punts (-150)

Monday Night Football -- Knock on Wood

2008-10-20T09:10:00.000-07:00

I've been doing pretty well on the Sunday night games this year (see last night), but have had a real bad luck half in many of the Monday Nighters lately. Last week the MNF game alone turned what had been a mildly winning week into my first losing week since week #1. I find myself in the same spot tonight, entering the game with a small profit for the week, looking to close out a teaser with one leg left to cash, and bets on the road team and the total. Last week I had the fav and the Under, this week I have the dog and the Over. So in spite of having Denver as my favorite side of the week, I'm wondering if the MNF jinx will rear it's ugly head again tonight.

Still, there is reason for optimism (as there is for all plays one makes, right?). The Patriots, by my ratings, actually have a worse pass defense than the Broncos. The Broncos still have the 7th best passing game in the league, they've just suffered from INTs and fumbles deep in enemy territory the last few games. The Patriots, with Clipboard Cassel at the helm, have the 27th best passing game in the league.

The Bronocs also have the 7th best running game (one more 7 and I've hit the jackpot -- that's gotta' be a jinx buster!). The Patriots run game? 23rd best. The Broncos have been pretty awful stopping the run, ranking 30th, though the Patriots haven't been a whole lot better coming in at 24th. Selvin Young, RB for the Broncos, is still "?" as far as I know, but Pittman had a great game last week filling in the injured Young. Denver has traditionally done pretty well with any running back behind the stellar offensive line run schemes they employ.

So the Broncos have a clear edge in the passing game, and a small edge in the running game. Is the Bellichick magic at home enough to overcome the fundamental disadvantages the Patriots have in this game? Recent history says no, as Shanahan has had very good success versus Bill B. in this century.

Final Score Projection: Broncos 30 -- Patriots 21

Recommended Plays:

1 Unit:
Broncos +3

1/2 Unit:
Broncos ML
Broncos ML 1st Q.
(I'd rather take the plus juice on the 1st Q. ML play than the -150 juice on the Broncos +0.5 1st Q. play. It's going to be a pretty high scoring game, so less likely to be tied after the 1st Q. The Patriots have started deferring the coin toss since Brady's injury, while the Broncos have elected to receive all 3 times they've won the toss.)
Broncos +1 1st Half (-105 BookMaker)

Sunday Wrap -- Winning with Junk

2008-10-19T20:49:00.001-07:00

Sigh, another late touchdown to give us a push on the TB -10 play, and give me a horrible ATS record for thepredictiontracker.com this week, lol. Could not get the breaks on the side today at all. Still, we hustled and turned a profit of +0.85 Units for the day as we killed every other play on the SNF game, and you subscribers alone reaped the benefit of a little over 2 Units won on second half plays today. Listen to all that "touty" sounding talk, lol.

Went 3 for 4 on the big first half favorites (I already groused about how Cincy just barely cost me 4 for 4 on those today). 1 of 2 on 1st half parlays, which turns a profit. The Saints had the ball with 2 chances to score a touchdown in the 2nd Q. to make it 2 for 2 on the parlays, but yeah, we know how the Saints did today.

Team Totals went a perfect 2 for 2 with winners on the Vikings Over and the Seahawks Under.

Plus money on teasers going 2-1.

Totals ended up in the black after hitting the Under in the SNF game.

But the sides? Oh the sides; a dismal -6.9 Units today, which leaves us with a small profit of +0.85 Units on the day. Still, we've got a leg up heading into the MNF game only needing Denver +15 to cash the lone Monster teaser of the week, the orphaned play I made when I had BAL covering the spread originally. Better to be lucky than good sometimes, lol.

The money continues to come in on Denver, who opened at +3.5 and are currently +3 (-115 range of vig). The Over has predictably shot up a couple of points as well, so feeling pretty good about the Over 46 heading into the game tomorrow.

I'm going to vent, it's what I do, lol.

2008-10-19T18:44:00.001-07:00

Boy, seems like most late 4th quarter scores were really unhelpful today, barring the late flurry in KC that gave us the Over. It was really kind of a crappy luck day over all, so time for a mini-rant/breakdown.

The Redskins outgained the Browns 351 to 236 yards, yet only won by 3 as a late Browns’ score killed the Redskins’ side, and the subsequent successful 2 point conversion killed the 2nd half play by one point. Gawd.

The Lions throw a 94-yard touchdown pass (and another successful 2 point conversion to kill a 2nd half play) en route to 11 unanswered 4th quarter points. I personally had the Texans -7 to settle for the disappointing push (hope you had -7 as well – that number was available for near an entire day).

The Vikings outgained the Bears by 102 yards…and lost by 7 points.

The Saints outgained the Panthers by a few yards…and lost 7-30. How is that possible, lol. And how is possible the Saints couldn’t put at least another touchdown on the board to push the Over bet.

The Dolphins outgained the Ravens by 2 yards…and lost 13-27. Thank you pick 6.

Dallas meaningless touchdown late in the 4th to kill an Under.

Indy converts 4th downs near the very end of game to eventually get a touchdown that pushes my Under (though it was probably a loss for most others unless you got the 48 early).

The 49ers were only outgained by 20 yards, yet lost by 12 points.

The Bengals were kind enough to score their only touchdown of the game with less than a minute left in the first half to kill the PIT -6 1st half bet. The Steelers were kind enough to score the majority of their points in the second half, ensuring that the first half bet was a loser as well as the Unders for the game.

Missed the Over in SD/BUF when Rivers throws an interception in the end zone. Multiple chances for that last touchdown to push the Over, but no dice.

Sure, there may have been a couple of breaks that helped with some of the plays somewhere along the way, but other than the late points in KC, nothing significant comes to mind, lol. Last week I felt pretty snake bit as well. Oh well, the football Gods showed me a pretty good time in weeks 2-5, and they seem dead set on getting a little, a verrrrry little bit back of what was made earlier in the season.

Still, if things continue to follow the script in the TB/SEA game (17-0 2 minutes left in 1st half), we’ll still be looking at being pretty near even for the week, which ain’t bad considering all of the above!

Week #7 Final Tally on Line Movement Savings

2008-10-17T19:37:00.000-07:00

KCo23.5/BAL+14.5/MIN+15/DEN+15
BAL ML +128
MIA ML -134
NO ML +140
DEN ML +150
MIN ML +160
TEN -7______________2
TEN/KC OVER 35
BAL/MIA OVER 34.5____________2
NO +3
NO/CAR OVER 44 ____________1
NYJ/OAK UNDER 43____________2
IND/GB UNDER 48____________1
MIN +3
DEN +3.5__________0.5
DEN/NE OVER 46_______________2
TEN -0.5/HOU -2.5
DAL/STL UNDER 44
SF/NYG OVER 45_____________2
SF +12 ________________2
WAS -1/DAL -1
SEA/TB UNDER 39_________________1
PIT/CLE UNDER 37 _______________2.5
BAL +3
MIA -2.5
SD/BUFF OVER 44
HOU -6/OVER 23.5 1ST HALF
NO +1/OVER 22.5 1ST HALF
HOU -8.5_______________1
TB -10
Redskins -6.5______________0.5
SD ML
Final Tally_______________19.5

That's 19.5 points saved on line movements and a 13-0 record for being on the right side of beating the line movements. For a 100$ a Unit player (and calculated using the recommended units for each play I originally posted) that is a savings of 367$ if you were to take the currently available lines and buy to the numbers that were available when I recommended the plays. Like I said, you're the one getting paid when you follow my early releases!

An Insider Article that Sums up Exactly why I was Down a Little Bit this Week, lol.

2008-10-15T08:46:00.000-07:00

DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
NEVADA SPORTSBOOKS HAVE HUGE WEEKEND KEYED BY INDY AND NFL UNDERDOGS
Most weeks you hear sportsbook operators in Las Vegas and Reno crying.
*If things went badly, they’re crying about it.
*If they broke even, they’re crying about it as if it went badly.
*If they won a little, they’re crying as if it went badly.
*If they won, they’re remembering an earlier bad week and crying about it.
*If they won BIG, they can’t keep the big smiles off their faces!
There are a lot of big smiles behind the counters at sportsbooks this week because the public lost big, AND the sharps lost big as well. This was particularly true in the NFL, though there was some big college action that went down in a few spots. Pro football is where the money came in:
*Baltimore was a very popular sharp play last week, particularly at the early numbers. I talked about this over the weekend, outlining how the line had fallen almost a field goal from the opener. The Ravens were literally never in the game. Indianapolis, a team that drove a spike through the hearts of oddsmakers the prior Sunday in Houston made it up to them with a blowout win. You don’t often see the sharps lose when the line moves this much. The sportsbooks were certainly celebrating that rare occurrence.
*Carolina was a popular play at the early number too in Tampa Bay. And, once that line came down, the Panthers were a popular play in teasers. The public usually teases big favorites down as “insurance.” Sharps use “basic strategy” of crossing the 3’s and 7’s whenever they can. Carolina was a qualifier there on paper, but lost on the field 27-3. Sharps tend to “round robin” their teaser teams. So, when a team loses, it doesn’t just cost them one bet…it costs them every bet containing that team. It’s also worth nothing that sharps like teasers even MORE when a game is expected to be a defensive struggle. Moving a line 6 points has more value when the over under is 37 than when it’s 47. Carolina hurt a lot of sharps bad.
*Minnesota, Houston, and Washington were all popular public favorites this week. Minnesota and Washington were going against Detroit and St. Louis. The public had made good money betting against those horrible teams this year. It came back to bite them Sunday though, as both ugly dogs almost won outright. A lot of parlay cards and public teaser bets went down with those results. Houston won straight up, but couldn’t cover its three point spread.
*Denver and Over was a popular play in late action, as everyone pictured that high octane offense posting a big result against the struggling Jacksonville defense. That didn’t happen either. Another popular parlay team bit the dust. Remember that late games have more betting action then early games. One result like this can make up for a bad morning from the casino’s perspective. When the morning went well…this kind of result is a home run.
*Monday Night, the books really cleaned up when Cleveland upset the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Not only were the Giants a popular betting team for the public…but the Giants were in a lot of parlays and teasers. In fact, the Giants were probably the number one teaser team in Nevada and offshore because the public wanted the extra points for insurance…and the sharps were using basic strategy and bringing the line down across the 7 and the 3. Some seasoned professionals had also used the Giants in teasers for NEXT week. Those have lost already. What was supposed to be a bailout night for the public and the sharps turned into a one-night printing press for the sportsbooks.
The only tears this week for sportsbook operators are tears of joy. It’s been hard for them to remember a week THIS good where everything fell into place.
Are those guys the only ones smiling right now? No. Some players did very well too.
Old school sharps in particular scored big. Those guys love underdogs, particularly big underdogs. That means they were taking shots on Detroit and St. Louis while the public was loading up on the favorites. They were backing the big Monday Night home underdog in the final game of the weekend. If the old school guys needed a bailout because of other losses, they won. If they were up for the weekend because of their dog success, they pressed their winnings up and cashed a nice ticket.
Are there any lessons YOU can take from a week like this? I think there are several:
*First, remember that even professional wagerers have bad weeks. Those who focus on teasers did very well last year, but aren’t so happy about it this year. The past weekend was particularly tough on them because both Carolina and the NY Giants failed to get there. Most big teasers involved those teams because of the low game total in the first one, and the apparent statistical edges in the second. Don’t get too down on yourself after a bad week. The best of the sharps have bad weeks too.
*Remember that the betting markets often overrate the most highly regarded teams. My last article talked about some of the pointpsread issues for favorites in the BCS race in the colleges. Sunday and Monday in the pros, teams with the WORSE record entering the game went 7-4 against the spread. Outright winners/covers included Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Arizona, San Diego, and Cleveland. *History shows that short term success with favorites will eventually hit a wall. You may win for awhile when hot teams are at their best. They eventually cool off. The public loses more in that cool off period than they win when the going is good. See if you can find a way to protect what you’ve won instead of exposing yourself to a complete meltdown. *If you bet in Vegas or Reno, be careful with those parlay cards. They’re the secret weapon sportsbooks use to beat the public. The house can live with a loss to sharps if the win from the public is even greater. Those parlay cards make it possible. You wouldn’t believe how many parlay cards with teams like Minnesota, Washington, and Denver were in trash Sunday afternoon.

Unsolicited Testimonials

2008-10-14T06:43:00.000-07:00

Here are a few unsolicited testimonials/recommendations I’ve copied from web forums or personal emails.

"Nice job on first day, received alerts in a timely manner, very professional. Looking forward to a very fun and profitable rest of the season."

"You've been on fire this year. I'm a 50/100 player and you've really helped me manage and build my bankroll."

"...thanks for the incomparable info the last few seasons."

“crunch your insight, capping, and play for play is something that I will miss alot. Your views alone with my thoughts made for me upping my game and ROI in the NFL. I know I'm speaking for a group of people that have been fortunate to read your posts that...we are disappointed to see you go. I wish you the best in pay for play and am sure your subscribers will be happy with the investment in you. Do your thing, hope to see you still post on peoples plays form time to time. Don't be a stranger.”

“Yo bro, your one of the best cappers here. You can't leave half way through the season.. but if you do much respect and always giving out quality picks through out the years.”

“Anyway, as always, good luck Crunch, and I hope you continue to make a bunch of people money while making your self a little more cash. One of the good guys in the business, I only wish you the best.”

“I'm fairly new to the forum but always respect creative and solid handicapping. You, sir, fit that definition.”

“Cruncher is as good as they get…I always love coming on here to see my picks matching up with yours. When they stray from what you have I almost instantly don't feel as good about them.”

“Thnx so much for your inputs, stats and #'s on the games....it is very valuable and very informed.”

“Cruncher has a billion plays but always comes out on the plus--so if you have the money and time, I would invest in him blindly, only person i would do it to... ever.”

“thanks for posting this information. it seems like a hell of a lot of work. had success last football season by playing the higher/highest % values on your board.”

“Great start cruncher.. Your threads are a must read…something tells me good weeks are going to be abundant for you.”

The New Subscriber Site Launches Oct. 19

2008-10-10T17:14:00.000-07:00

A big announcement today: I will no longer be providing my lines and plays free of charge.

When I started seriously handicapping NFL football over 5 years ago, I never had the intention of becoming a "tout." Had that been the case I would've made the move years ago because I hit the ground running as a winner and have not come close to having a losing season even once.

This year, though, I had already decided to start a member website, the only question being whether it would be free for the remainder of the season or not.

If you're reading this you're probably aware of my phenomenal record through the first 5 weeks of this season. So yes, I see nothing wrong with seeking a little compensation for the money I've made for any who've followed me, and from those who were unfortunate enough to discover the value of my services only after I'd stopped giving it away for free for years, lol.

It has been an unprecedented run, and is in some part due to the very hard work I put into overhauling and improving my spreadsheet, and in some part due to luck as well. I've caught more than my fair share of bounces so far, whereas usually I feel like I win in spite of getting more bad breaks than good, lol.

A little more "touting" of my own record and abilities here before I list the services I'll be providing for a reasonable fee.

I’ve posted my NFL selections and lines for the 2000, and 2004 through the current 2008 seasons at TheRx.com (formerly theprescription.com). Feel free to ask anyone who’s been there for more than a few months what my reputation and record have been. An average season for me has typically seen about a 50% growth in a gambling bankroll, where my average bet size has typically been less than 1% of the bankroll per play. So there’s been extremely good capital growth with almost no risk. This season my bankroll is already approaching 50% growth with an average bet size of .84% of a unit per play.

How have I been able to consistently outperform the stock market (and oh, how disparate are our fortunes THIS season, lol) by a staggering amount? It’s not simple, but the simple answer is that I create sharper lines than the sportsbooks initially post and I bet the opening lines getting tremendous value on my plays before the market adjusts.

Even against closing lines my lines perform well, as evidenced by my record at thepredictiontracker.com last year and this year. I do what the sharps, syndicates, wise-guys – whatever you want to call them, also do. We all compete against each other for the early value on the lines. It’s the professional, winning method for sports betting. People have tracked my opening bets over the course of the season and seen how I’ve consistently been on the right side of line moves.

Two seasons ago I tracked publicly in my forum threads at TheRx my predictions for line moves at the very moment the lines were released. Suffice it to say, the final tally was a complete blowout when counting positive points when the line moved in the direction I predicted, and negative points when it moved the opposite way.

There will be the occasional game where a line moves a half or full point in the opposite way that I expect, but I beat the books to the punch on virtually every significant line move. I don’t have to rely on waiting until some of the value has been sucked out of a line to see which way the money is coming, which is a big advantage.

Are there any touts out there that don’t offer their plays later in the week into potentially dead lines? I don’t know. I’ve never followed a tout in spite of having respect for a few worthy handicappers that have marketed their services in the past.

So here's what you'll get:

I will provide my subscribers with my lines and recommended plays at the very same time the lines are first opened up for betting.

That’s a big, big advantage over what even a legitimate handicapper usually provides. Anyone familiar with my betting knows that I’m a big volume, small risk player, frequently getting 50% of my bankroll into action on any given Sunday. It’s what the professionals do. I’ve added a link to the 2+2 sportsbetting forum that has an excellent FAQ section about the basics required to be a winning sports bettor, so that I don’t have to cover a lot of the same ground.

I’ll also be alerting my subscribers to plays that are recommended throughout the week based on line moves or injury updates.

Getting closer to game day, there’ll also be updates as more bets become available to play and any late plays based on anti-steam line moves.

I’ve been very successful with 2nd half plays since building a halftime line generator last year and will also be sending those plays out in time to be bet.

At the password protected blog for subscribers, I’ll be doing write-ups for all of the games in separate posts so that subscribers can ask questions or offer opinions on each game with my continued input throughout the week. A mini-forum, if you will.

The price for my years of work, unmatched winning record, and continued tireless efforts to build bankrolls? Hard to put a number on, lol, but I’m going to start with the extremely affordable price of 60$ for a four week blocks, just 15$ per week.

Most touts charge quite a bit more, don’t have a third of my ability, and spread their time amongst the many sports being played this year. And like I said, they almost always offer up their plays into stale lines.

Next year, who knows? I’ll have a full-fledged website up then with even more valuable information for serious handicappers, and maybe the prices will change, but I want to keep prices reasonable for even small players.

For medium to large players, what I offer for the price will probably be the biggest bargain you’ve ever seen in your life, other than the free services I’ve been offering up for years now, lol.

Just looking at the savings you’ll be making based on the line moves means my services are ridiculously cheap, regardless of the outcomes of the games (and yeah, you know my record when it comes to that, too).

I’ve always had more good weeks than bad weeks, but even in a non-winning week you can rest assured you got your money in the pot with the best odds.

If you have questions or wish to subscribe, contact me at the email listed here or at thesportscruncher@hotmail.com, and I’ll provide you with answers or paypal instructions, as that will be the only method of payment I’ll be accepting this year.

As always, my information and plays are for entertainment purposes only, and I accept no liability for any actions taken on anyone’s part as a result of my recommendations. Pretty sure I’ll always need this disclaimer thing at the bottom of my blog sites, lol.

Week #6

2008-10-07T22:24:00.000-07:00

Killed it again in Week #5. The improvements I've made to my spreadsheet seem to be really dialing in the right sides so far. Going to post the link to my plays and thoughts to TheRx this week, as there's been more discussion there.

Week #5

2008-09-28T21:33:00.000-07:00

Had another huge Sunday, making this Sunday and last my two best Sundays ever, and back to back no less.
Here's a link at right to my week #5 thread.

Week #4

2008-09-25T16:17:00.000-07:00

Greetings, please check the week #4 link to the right for this week's action. Lots of strong plays this week. I beat the line movement on most, but most have value still.

Week #3 Lines & Plays Updated.

2008-09-20T09:34:00.000-07:00

As I'm unable to post Excel table data into the blog here, I'll direct you to the week #3 EOG.com link to the right for the updates! These lines generally aren't updated at ThePredictionTracker until Sunday morning.

Week #2 recap & Week #3 Recommended Plays

2008-09-17T13:17:00.000-07:00

Week two had been running pretty lucky on sides (not so lucky on totals) until the gas tank was punctured in the 4th Q. at Dallas Monday night. I was quite possibly one glitched handoff away from ending up the week well over 10 units ahead...but had to settle being up 6.7. I had a very good week at thepredictiontracker.com, ending up near the top of the board for the week and evening out my ats record to 15-15 for the year after a dismal week 1.

Season to date: +5.3 Units

Week #3 Recommended Plays:

1 Unit:
Bucs +3
Vikings/Panthers Over 37
Denver -5
49ers -4
Ravens -2.5
NYG-2/OAK+22/TB+15/MIA+26
Redskins -3
Eagles/Steelers Under 45.5
Packers/Cowboys Under 51.5
Jaguars +5.5
Jaguars ML

1/2 Unit:
Bears/Bucs Over 35

*** Remember that I'll be posting halftime plays in my EOG.com thread

Week #3 Plays

2008-09-14T18:24:00.000-07:00

See my link at EOG.com for week #3 plays.

Have had a fantastic day so far up 8 units.

Week #2 Final Lines

2008-09-12T22:40:00.000-07:00

These are much more readable at the EOG.com link at the right.

Home Road Mine Actual Covers Value
KC OAK 3.5 3.5 KC 0.0%
CIN TEN -3.1 1 TEN 11.2%
MIN IND -2.9 -1 IND 4.4%
WAS NO 0.1 0 WAS 0.3%
DET GB -7.9 -3 GB 10.7%
CAR CHI 3.4 3 CAR 1.1%
STL NYG -13.1 -8 NYG 12.1%
JAC BUF 1.4 5 BUF 9.7%
TB ATL 2.6 7 ATL 11.8%
SEA SF 2.2 6.5 SF 11.3%
ARI MIA 6.2 6.5 MIA 0.9%
NYJ NE -1.5 1.5 NE 8.2%
HOU BAL 1.7 4.5 BAL 7.4%
DEN SD 0.4 1 SD 1.3%
CLE PIT -4.4 -6 CLE 3.5%
DAL PHI 2.7 6.5 PHI 8.1%

Home Road Mine Actual Covers Value
KC OAK 39.6 36 Over 9.2%
CIN TEN 39.1 37 Over 5.3%
MIN IND 42.7 43.5 Under 1.8%
WAS NO 44.8 42 Over 6.3%
DET GB 46.3 46 Over 0.6%
CAR CHI 40.6 37 Over 8.8%
STL NYG 38.8 42 Under 8.1%
JAC BUF 37.9 37 Over 2.3%
TB ATL 38.1 37.5 Over 1.5%
SEA SF 33.7 38 Under 12.9%
ARI MIA 40.3 39.5 Over 2.0%
NYJ NE 36.2 37 Under 2.2%
HOU BAL 38.3 37.5 Over 2.1%
DEN SD 46.7 46 Over 1.4%
CLE PIT 42.2 44.5 Under 5.4%
DAL PHI 43.7 46.5 Under 6.5%

Week #2 Write-Ups Games 1-5

2008-09-11T22:15:00.000-07:00

Raiders @ Chiefs
The Raiders ran the ball pretty well last week, but they did it while playing from behind the entire
game (passing situations) and versus the Broncos, one of last year's worst run defenses, so it's too
soon to tell just how potent this running game will be in a close game, which this one figures to be.
Still, the one-two punch of Fargas and McFadden looks promising. What didn't look promising was
the passing game which featured many poorly thrown balls and the occasional drop.
The Chiefs' defense was not impressive at NE last week. They allowed the Pats' to gain almost 5
yards per carry and for Matt Cassel to have a higher QB rating than the knocked-out Brady.
Offensively, they were unsurprisingly subpar versus a good Pats' defense. Damon Huard came in
to relieve the injured Brody Croyle (out a month+) and put up moderately better numbers, almost
leading them to a game-tying score at the end of the game.
The Chiefs are a young team, the Raiders a young (mentally) team led by a 33-year old coach
who knows the owner want him to quit. Everyone in the booth last Monday night was about ready
to cry for Lane Kiffin when the game got ugly, it was hard not to feel sorry for him, lol.
It'll be interesting to see how DeAngelo Hall fares versus D. Bowe after getting torched by rookie
Royal last week. Bowe and Gonzales have the size and ability to get downfield and win a lot of jump
balls versus a smallish Raiders secondary. About the only thing Raider-esque Hall did last Monday
was incur a couple of stupid personal fouls. If the Raiders blitz even one time on 3rd down this
week it'll be one more time than they did last week, which was pretty stupid versus a QB in Cutler
who can throw with accuracy to almost anywhere on the field.

Final Score Prediction: Raiders 17 -- Chiefs 21

Titans @ Bengals
VY was MIA from Sunday on the field through Monday night when coach Fischer thought the poor
kid to be suicidal. Now comes the announcement that VY won't regain his status as starter until
he shows progress on the field of green and the field of the mind. I don't know, but it seems like
maybe things got blown out of proportion by a coach who'd rather start Kerry Collins. Now there's
a coach ready to take it to the next level to help his team win. Speaking of being on suicide
watch after a dismal performance, I'm surprised anyone showed up to the Bengals' first practice
after last week's drubbing by the Ravens. An extra page of obituaries in the back of the
Cincinnati Enquirer would not have been surprising on Monday. They just wouldn't have been sure
whether to print "Chad Johnson" or "Chad Ocho Cinco." The Bengals were on their way to being
down 24-3 in the second half last week before returning a turnover some 70+ yards to pull within
a touchdown, a margin they couldn't, of course, make up unless they were the benefactors of
another defensive score.
I don't know if the Titans' coach espouses as many on the field dirty tricks as off, but the Titans ended
the season for about half of the Jaguars' offensive line on opening day. The resulting sieve was too
much for the normally steady Garrard to overcome as he was sacked 7 times and through 2 INTs.
I guess we can just count on the Titans upsetting the Jaguars whenever they play the first game of
the season together.
The Bengals whipped the playoff bound Titans in their last meeting in Cincinnati last year,
in no small part to VY's red zone blunders. So motivation won't be a problem for the visiting
Titans (though it is a road sandwich game for them, which is always dangerous).
As for the Cancerous Bengals, it's hard to say how mentally ready they'll be for this non-divisional
game as they face the defending Super Bowl champs next week. I'll take a sandwich over cancer
any time.

Final Score Prediction: Titans 21 -- Bengals 17

Colts @ Vikings
First impressions are that the Colts will pass all day and the Vikings will run all game. Advantage
Colts if the Vikings are forced to the passing game in the 4th quarter. Manning won't have to worry
about the Williams coming up the gut to get him on shotgun plays. They could come free and he'd
still have enough time to get the ball out of his hands. Jared Allen didn't register a tackle, let alone
a sack versus the Packers, which doesn't bode well for a Vikings' pass defense that needs all the
help up front it can get. Dallas Clark didn't practice again on Thursday, and he might be the
one receiver (at TE) that the Colts can't replace, because it's total scrubville on the depth charts
behind him. Addai got dinged up, but looks to be ready for the next game. Not having Jeff Saturday
at center might not hurt the Colts this week as much as last unless they foolishly decide to run it
up the middle more than 4 or so times this game. A blocking whiff by the replacement may just
set up better the short drop off passes over the middle to Addai that Manning likes to throw.

Impromptu poll: Which of these 2 players will get knocked the eff out the first time they collide at full
speed? #1 AD-AP #2 Bob Sanders

Final Score Prediction: Colts 24 -- Vikings 20
My gut tells me there will be a little more scoring in this game than the 41.5 my spreadsheet predicts.

Saints @ Redskins
The Redskins went from playoff contender to pretender a mere one game into the NFL season. They
looked that bad. The defense stepped it up in the second half, but the 9 point deficit was not
touched, as the game went scoreless for quarters 3 & 4 (always nice for the 2nd half Under bet).
While the Redskins were able to clamp down versus a run-first Giants' team, they could be
scrambling all day versus the Saints' potent pass attack (which will be without top WR Colston).
Drew Brees does not take sacks, so the stretched and hobbling Redskin secondary will need to
come up with a pick or two to pull off the home opener. Reggie Bush looked good "in space" last
week, while Deuce McCallister is still being nursed back to full health. The "new and improved"
Saints' defense wasn't, as it turns out, as they allowed the Bucs to run all over them. They'll be
drinking Portis all day, even if they happen to have healthy lead, as offensive "genius" Zorn seems to
find nothing wrong with running the ball when down by 2 scores deep into the 4th quarter. Maybe
the Redskins' will have a no-huddle offense to go to before the season ends, just maybe.
The Saints' offensively performed pretty well last week versus THE Tampa 2, one of their toughest
match ups, so I don't expect them to have any problems putting up points in this game. The
Redskins' should be able to score some as well as Campbell will find some favorable passing downs
and situations as the Saints may cheat some defensively versus the run. This is another game
that I expect to be slightly higher scoring than my early lines indicate.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 23 -- Redskins 21

Packers @ Lions
The only question here is whether the Lions will find enough defense at home to stop the
ultra-square Packers -3 bets from cashing (mine included). I say, "No." The Lions won't be able to
cheat versus the run or pass defensively, so they're going to be stuck in the middle with their
thumb up their ass like last week at Atlanta. I called "bullshit" on the Lions' new "running game"
before the game last week, which is what it turned out to be. They had a poor yards per carry
average despite being in passing situations for most of the game. They picked up 4 1st downs
running while surrendering 17 to the Falcons, who found themselves in the rare position of not
having to take to the skies in search of a victory. Rookies Ryan and Flacco couldn't have had it
any better in their respective debuts, playing with crushing running games on their side. Kitna
reacquainted himself with his keister while gamely trying to lead his team back. He'll have Kampman
on his keister this game, or maybe Poppinga poppin' his ass -- okay, I'll stop now. The Packers will
have too many big offensive plays for the Lions to keep pace.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 31 -- Lions 20

Week #2 Lines

2008-09-11T15:31:00.000-07:00

Remember, this is the first year I've tried to make lines before week #4...

Home______Away______My Line__Actual_____Value

Chiefs____Raiders_____3 _____3.5_____0
Bengals___Titans_____-3.3_____1_______11.5% Titans
Vikings___Colts______-2.5____-1_______3.4% Colts
Redskins__Saints_____-0.6_____0_______1.4% Saints
Lions_____Packers____-10.3___-3______15.9% Packers
Panthers__Bears_______3.1_____3_______0.4% Panthers
Rams______Giants_____-11.9___-8_______9.3% Giants
Jaguars___Bills_______2.4_____5.5_____8.4% Bills
Bucs______Falcons_____1.1_____7______15.6% Falcons
Seahawks__49ers_______3_______6.5_____9.3% 49ers
Cards_____Dolphins____6_______5.2_____2.2% Dolphins
Jets______Patriots___-0.5_____1.5_____5.4% Patriots
Texans____Ravens______2.7_____4.5_____4.8% Ravens
Broncos___Chargers___-1______-0.4_____1.3% Broncos
Browns____Steelers___-6______-3.5_____5.7% Browns
Cowboys___Eagles______2.7_____7_______9.2% Eagles

Home______Away______My OU___Actual_____Value
Chiefs____Raiders_____39.6____36_______9.2% Over
Bengals___Titans______38.5____37_______3.8% Over
Vikings___Colts_______41.7____43.5_____4.4% Under
Redskins__Saints______40.6____42_______3.4% Under
Lions_____Packers_____46.4____46_______0.9% Over
Panthers__Bears_______40.4____37_______8.4% Over
Rams______Giants______38.5____42_______9.0% Under
Jaguars___Bills_______38.4____37_______3.7% Under
Bucs______Falcons_____38.4____37.5_____2.2% Under
Seahawks__49ers_______32.1____38______18.4% Under
Cards_____Dolphins____41.3____38.5_____6.8% Over
Jets______Patriots____37.3____37_______0.8% Over
Texans____Ravens______38.3____37.5_____2.2% Over
Broncos___Chargers____46.2____46_______0.4% Over
Browns____Steelers____42______44.5_____5.9% Under
Cowboys___Eagles______43.7____46.5_____6.5% Under

TPT

2008-09-06T09:58:00.000-07:00

New England, Baltimore, 4.7San Francisco, N.Y. Giants, -4

Week #1 Recommended Plays

2008-09-05T15:17:00.000-07:00

All of my plays are initially posted at TheRx.com, and it's a crapshoot whether I get them posted here before they're past-posted. Once I get my website up in a month, it'll all be there.

Week #1 Plays:

1 Unit:
Redskins/Giants Under 41
Bengals -2
Jets/Dolphins Over 36
Lions -3
Chiefs/Patriots Under 44
Jaguars/Titans Over 36.5
Eagles -1.5/Colts -2.5 Teaser (-120)
Colts/Bears Under 43
Seahawks' Team Total Over 18
Cardinals -2.5
Packers/Vikings Over 37

3/4 Unit:
Cowboys/Browns Under 49
Panthers/Chargers Under 41.5
Cardinals/49ers Under 42.5

1/2 Unit:
Redskins/Giants Under 20 2nd half (-120)
Pats-5/Colts+.5/Seahawks+10 Teaser
Eagles/Rams Under 43.5
Jaguars' Team Total Over 20 (-105 5Dimes)
Jaguars -3 (+100)
Bucs Money Line (+155)
Packers -2

*** Too many question marks for the Ravens this week with injuries/suspensions in the secondary as well.

*** Cowboys will want to run the rock plenty (and are thin at WR because of injuries, though that's not a huge factor) and the Browns will need to run a balance offense to avoid getting Anderson teed off on by the Cowboys' speedy pass rushers. A lot has to go right (or wrong, depending on how you look at it) for a game to hit 50.

*** Jets & Dolphins: Here we have two teams that were below league average at defending both the run AND pass last year. Add to the mix Favre and Pennington freshly installed at QB. Okay, neither QB is exactly fresh at this point, but Favre's QB style leads to points, and Pennington is still accurate. Look at the O/U -- 36, which is below the most key number in totals, 37. Worth a bet on the Over? Yup.

*** Grr, I've looked at it, and looked at it, and the only significant advantage the Lions have over the Falcons is in the passing game (which is the best place to have an advantage, of course). Both teams have weak secondaries, and Kitna and Co. are surely more capable of exploiting that when compared to rookie Ryan. The Lions and their new-offensive coordinator want to get back to some power running...

...but I say bullshit. Once they see how open Johnson and Williams are getting on plays that itchy trigger finger is going to start firing bullets left and right. They'd be fools not to, though foolish coaching is something you see every week. Neither team has much in the way of pass-rushing, and Atlanta's looks weaker. Mike Smith, the new Atlanta coach, used to be the D. coordinator in Jacksonville. He rushed the QB with 5 or more players only 26 percent of all pass plays (info. courtesy of The Football Prospectus 2008). If he sticks to that philosophy with the severe drop in talent he now has, they won't get many sacks.

Ach...I don't love it, but I feel compelled to play the Lions at -3 (-110 Bookmaker) while the -110 is still available for 1 unit. Ryan has looked alright in the preseason, but now it's a tougher beast for an entire game. I guess I'll find out if auto-betting versus a rookie QB is always wise after all.

*** The Chiefs offense versus anyone, the Patriots offense versus 20-30 mph winds = Under.

*** Might as well take the Jags/Titans Over 36.5 now in case it rebounds up to the key number, 37.

*** Panthers/Chargers --- Two good defenses with plenty of running the rock here. Some stingy red zone defense should equal some field goals, making a 28-14 all touchdowns final score less likely, lol. It takes a lot of field goals in a game to get over that 41 point hump. Plus the likely possibility of the Chargers nursing a second half lead will keep the scoring down, as the Chargers have been good in the past at eating clock late and sacking teams trying to come from behind via the pass.

*** Colts/Bears Under 43 -- It's been a sloppy week in terms of getting the best lines for me, which is uncharacteristic. I attribute it to the newness of being active in week #1 for the first time and not completely trusting my lines in terms of indicating line changes. Well, perhaps I should have, because my base totals derived from last years stats have done a good job in indicating line movement this first week for the most part.

*** Eagles and 49ers Unders -- these are the last 2 of my "Shake off the Rust Unders" plays. My numbers indicate these going Under, with hopefully a little rust aiding and abetting the betting.

*** Until Vince Young can beat the Jaguars, it's an auto-bet against.

Week #1 2008 NFL

2008-09-05T14:27:00.000-07:00

Week #1: Quick Thoughts & Lines

Lions @ Falcons: Rookie Matt Ryan will take the Falcon snaps behind an O Line also featuring some fresh new faces. If the line can stay half-way healthy they’ll be better than last year’s injury-prone posse. The quarterback situation went to the dogs, so to speak, and may remain there this year. Still, the Lions are not looking very strong up front defensively and may be ineffective at getting to the rookie, especially if the Falcons can avoid many 3rd and longs with a semi-successful run game. With a little bit of time and some believable play action (haven’t seen how much of that Ryan and the Falcons do), Ryan should complete a fair number of passes versus one of the worst pass defenses of last season. Michael Turner is the new running back in town – Falcons fans can only hope that he splits the carries with the mysteriously underused J. Norwood. Martz is gone as the OC from Detroit, and the Lions are professing to bring a more balanced offensive game plan into the season. Suuuure, we’ll see how long that lasts. With the depth at wide receiver that they have and the lack of star power at running back, they’d be crazy not to bring back some of the Martz mania on offense. The Falcons would like to play a slow game here, to stay within striking distance of a win without forcing Ryan to play from too far behind. The Lions would be smart to try and play fast and put the Falcons off balance playing catch up.

My Line: Falcons +1.9
Final Score Prediction: Lions 23 – Falcons 20

Bengals @ Ravens: It’s up to Carson Palmer again to try and carry his team on his shoulders into the playoffs. The defense last year was relying on Palmer to carry them as well, which oddly enough didn’t turn out so good. The Bengals were down to parking lot attendants at linebacker at one point last year, so it seems that they can only improve defensively (A. Odom on the D line should help). The Raven’s defense continues to age at the appropriate pace of one year per annum, while the offense gets younger with Flacco and Rice (which I think is what I ordered last time I went out for Mexican). Ed Reed is one crick in the neck away from retirement, and is “?” for week 1. Newly acquired CB Fabian Washington is suspended for game one. I thought I’d read that another Baltimore DB was suspended for this game but now I can’t track that information down. At any rate, the Baltimore secondary, terrible and injured last season, is starting 2008 in the same fashion versus one of the best QBs in the league. Could be trouble. Which brings us to Flacco, rookie Raven QB. I like Delaware and the University of Delaware has a beautiful campus. Only time will tell if Flacco is an NFL caliber quarterback or not, coming from such a small school playing versus defenses closer to a high school than NFL level, I reckon. If he struggles to get it done versus a Bengal defense while playing at home, well, you know the rest. The Ravens also debut a new head coach in Harbaugh. A rookie head coach on one hand or Marvin Lewis on the other -- hard to tell if there’s a clear advantage there.

My Line: Ravens +3.5
Final Score Prediction: Bengals 23 – Ravens 17

Seahawks @ Bills: Matt Hasselbeck’s bad back will be back on the field without having seen much practice time heading into the season opener. Still, Seneca is solid, and even Frye is back out of the fire and into the pan with some solid preseason play. Deion Branch says he’s going to play, the Seahawks do need to fill some jerseys at WR, it’s true. Defensively, Bernard and Babineux are suspended for the first game. So the Seahawks bring a few question marks to a game with the always one large question mark Bills. Someone forgot to tell the Bills’ Pro Bowl offensive tackle Jason Peters that he’s playing in Buffalo where salaries and architecture have a distinctive circa 1970s flair. His contract holdout will have him missing at least the first game, though the team feels confident with the adjustments made for his absence. We’ll see about that. Peters leaving the game versus the Giants last year cost me a big chunk of profit last year when a Bills second half lead failed to even cover a Sweetheart teaser by the time it was all said and done. Trend Edwards will start at QB for the Bills, with JP Losman breathing down his neck, though to be fair, in Buffalo come December it looks like everyone is breathing down everybody elses neck it can get so friggin’ cold. The Bills have two young running backs that showed a lot of promise last year in Lynch and Jackson, and will look to set up the passing game on the strength of a solid running game. The numbers say it will be a close game, with the Hasselbeck led and Holmgren coached Seahawks logging an opening week victory.

My Line: Bills +1.1
Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 21 – Bills 20

Cowboys @ Browns: Two teams in for a big let down this year, according to FootballOutsiders, though I’m more inclined to believe in the Browns decline. Still, the Cowboys play in a division where every victory will be hard earned, so who knows? The pointspread tells the story on who brings the superior team into this contest, as the Cowboys are the largest road favorite in week #1. The main reason? Defense. Still, the Browns, like any other team, will look to exploit Roy Williams in pass defense. The Cowboys have struggled defending tight ends and that Winslow kid the Browns have ain’t too shabby. Pacman Jones hasn’t seen playing time since, well, when Pacman was getting quarters pumped into it at the local arcade. He’s been cleared of his own lead-pumping crimes and is good to go, for what it’s worth. For the Browns, Derek Anderson has just set to clearing the cobwebs from the concussion he sustained a couple of weeks ago, while top receiver Braylon Edwards is recovering at the other end of the bodily spectrum with a cut foot. Electrifying return man J. Cribbs is “?” for week #1, as is RB J. Lewis. The Cowboys are thin at receiver, but mostly all there elsewhere across the roster. The Cowboys will need to stockpile wins early in the year in case one of their stars gets injured, and ought to get one here.

My Line: Browns +7.2
Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Browns 20

Bears @ Colts: Suddenly the Colts aren’t a dome team anymore. They’ve got a new-fangled retractable roof in an attractive new stadium, something the Bears faithful might wish they had in Chicago when it turns cold on the banks of Lake Michigan. This game won’t feature anything else new-fangled, just a good old fashioned butt whuppin’ like the Super Bowl game 2 years ago. At least the Bears should get good field position after the Indy scores when the Colts either kick it to Hester or squib it downfield a bit. The Indy return coverage was pretty poor last year, so don’t be surprised if Hester takes one back in the season opener. The Bears’ defense will be at full strength, but will be hard pressed to stop an Indy offense also at full strength. Once the Bears fall behind, don’t expect Kyle Orton, who WON the starting quarterback job (unlike Flacco in Baltimore who got the nod by injury default), to lead this team back from anywhere except the tunnel after halftime. Dwight Freeney is finally healthy at DE for the Colts, and he’s bullish to sack some Bears to begin the season. The Bears just don’t have the weapons to compete in this one, it’s like bringing chopsticks to a numchuck?, nunchuck?, somethin’chuck fight. Peyton Manning hasn’t seen any play time in the preseason, but hey, he’s Peyton, right?
A bursa-sac infected Manning in the hand is worth two Grossmans and Ortons in the bush.

My Line: Colts -14.7
Final Score Prediction: Colts 27 – Bears 13

Jets @ Dolphins: Brett Favre will have many occasions to wonder if hanging around to pad his records was really worth it this year. The Jets have at least tried to upgrade their front lines, adding A. Faneca at LG and K. Jenkins at NT. Favre will need an upgraded line as the Jets were the 29th most sacked team per pass plays in the league last year. He’ll probably be okay facing the Dolphins. The Dolphins switched to a 3-4 hybrid defense, and then lost their main hybrid player, Jason Taylor, to the Redskins. He may be slowing, but he’s surely better than whoever is going to take his place. The Dolphins’ offensive line is very young and will be tested by teams loading up to stop the run early in games. Ted Ginn will have to keep it in second gear to not outrun Pennington’s passes. Newly acquired E. Wilford may be a better choice at wide receiver. He’s a big body that can get up there to snag some lobs in the middle of the field. In spite of Parcells being brought into guide the Miami franchise, at least for now the Jets appear to have a leg up on them in terms of players on the field.

My Line: Dolphins +3
Final Score Prediction: Jets 21 – Dolphins 17

Chiefs @ Patriots: The rebuilding Chiefs visit a Patriots team that is probably still smoldering inside from losing the Super Bowl and a perfect season all in one game. Don’t expect the chip on Bellichick’s shoulder to diminish any time soon – the thing is a cancerous tumor by now. I’m assuming Brady will be at 100% with my line. The Patriots are famous for claiming a player to be falling off his death bed only to miraculously spring up, suit up, and play on any given Sunday. There’s plenty in the Chief’s linebacking corps and secondary for the Patriots’ passing game to exploit, so they won’t need to challenge the strength of the Chiefs’ defense, which is stopping the run. The Chief’s, with Croyle at QB, and a rejiggered O Line (last year’s line play was atrocious) are ill-suited to come from behind, so I expect them to stay behind. Blow out of week #1 here.

My Line: Patriots -20.9
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 10 – Patriots 31

Bucs @ Saints: Joey Galloway’s 36 year old groin just ain’t what it used to be, but he says he’s ready to enter and play an NFL game despite missing all of preseason and training camp before that. He’s clearly the Bucs’ best receiver when healthy at a position where the Bucs’ lack depth. E. Graham came in as an emergency running back replacement last year and is now back as the season starter. Behind him on the depth charts will be W. Dunn, who’s clearly aging and in a steep decline over the last 2 seasons.
You look at the Bucs roster and wonder how they score points…well, they’ve got a young and talented offensive line and they run the play-fake pretty damn well. Now they’ve swiped center J. Faine from the Saints as well. The Saints’ offensive line may not be any better than it was last year (trouble) but their defensive front should be better (if they can avoid injuries like last year), which will, of course, help their oft-torched secondary (which returns many of the same “players.”) The Saints did pick up linebacker J. Vilma from the Jets, so yes, their front seven has the potential to better than the very average squad it was last year. Offensively, with Brees, a recovering Deuce McCallister, some good wide receivers, and now Jeremy Shockey at TE, the Saints should put some points on the board. Last year they were #1 at converting in the red zone. The Bucs were a dismal 25th offensively in the red zone, and their defense was surprisingly poor in the red zone, ranked 29th, though only 6 defenses allowed their opponents fewer trips into the red zone. That is my grand prediction for this game – whichever team does better in the red zone will win.

My Line: Saints -2.5
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 20 – Saints 23

Rams @ Eagles: The Eagles at WR have been without starter Reggie Brown all preseason with a hammy and he’s just starting to practice now. Kevin Curtis herniated himself in a sporting fashion and is out indefinitely, which leaves only Baskett and Lewis listed as WRs on the depth chart. Still, with McNabb, Westbrook and a pretty good trio of TEs the Eagles should find enough offense to beat what looks to be another poor Rams’ pass defense this year. The Rams’ run defense wasn’t so hot either – let’s just call it a poor defense and leave it at that. The Rams will have two young guys on the right D Line, and two old guys on the left. They’d better hope the generation gap doesn’t lead to, err, gaps. Offensively, the Rams will put a healthy squad on the field for the first time since God knows when. Bulger, S. Jackson, O. Pace – all together? Think of the possibilities! The Rams had to resort to small ball last year, they’re bound to improve their yards per play in this campaign. The Eagles are young at linebacker, with all three starters 25 and below, and didn’t perform particularly well when taken as a whole last year. The Eagles love cornerbacks that can handle single-coverage to free up the rest of the team for the blitzing schemes the Eagles are famous for, so it made sense for them to go after and sign Asante Samuel. The Eagles’ defense shined in the red zone, ranking 1st. That will take a dip this year, but the Eagles’ offense should improve it’s poor red zone performance to balance the scales of red zone justice.

My Line: Eagles -8.9
Final Score Prediction: Rams 17 – Eagles 26

Panthers @ Chargers: Del Homme back at QB for the Panthers, but top WR Smith suspended for the first two games of the season, leaving the Panthers thin at WR. Merriman just wants to play ball.

My Line: Chargers -10
Final Score Prediction: Panthers 14 – Chargers 24

Cardinals @ 49ers: It will be interesting to see how the plodding 49ers’ offense of last year responds to Mike Martz’ high octane style now that he’s the new offensive coordinator. It might be like mixing oil and water. The 49er defensive gamely tried to salvage some wins for the team this year, and should play even better if they stay moderately healthy. Too bad for the 49ers, though, that the Cardinals match up well versus them on both sides of the ball. Warner and that great group of receivers should win the road opener, with the rest of the team putting in an intense effort remembering the two games the 49ers stole from them last year.

My Line: 49ers +6.9
Final Score Prediction: Cardinals 23 – 49ers 17

Jaguars @ Titans: Jags’ Collier shot over the weekend, always a distraction. Can MLB Mike Peterson stay healthy for them this year (he’s good when in there)? The Jags’ always match up well versus the Titans when Vince Young starts at QB, as he can’t exploit the weakness of the Jags’ defense, their pass defense, like many other capable quarterbacks can. The Titan’s defense won’t be able to pick up enough of the offensive slack to win.

My Line: Titans +3.5
Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 21 – Titans 17

Vikings @ Packers: Aaron Rodgers = time will tell, but he’s got a lot of talent around him. Packers’ defense – better versus the run than pass, a good match up for this game. The Vikings acquired Jared Allen, a magnificent addition at DE to help the Vikings’ notoriously weak pass rush. Allen wanted a trade to colder climes so that his next and NFL suspending DUI would at least be into a snow bank somewhere, preserving his vital organs and clotting his thinned blood. I’m not sure if the Vikings can be as super-human against the run this year, but they’ll still be very good. LT McKinnie suspended the first 4 for the Vikes, not helpful. QB Jackson recovering from an injury. Rodgers throwing arm should get a workout in this home opener.

My Line: Packers -5
Final Score Prediction: Vikings 20 – Packers 24

Broncos @ Raiders: Which team was able to patch up its’ run defense during the off season? These two were dead last last year. The Raiders at least had the excuse of injuries, so I say they’ll be better, as the Broncos didn’t do much up front heading into this season. Neither team had a very good pass defense last year, in spite of the much ballyhooed cornerbacks Asomugha (Oak) and Bailey (Den). Alright, Bailey is 30 now and sliding, but even Asomugha couldn’t cover the entire secondary. The Raiders shipped out their other starting corner, F. Washington, and brought in “destined to be perennially disgruntled” DeAngelo Hall in his place. Say “Hello” to two wins again this season, Mr. Hall, maybe you’ll learn to enjoy losing here in Oakland ala Randy Moss. The Broncos at least enjoy the luxury of a decent passing game, something the Raiders don’t figure to have. Still, I’m leanin’ on the Raiders to cover the home opener.

My Line: Raiders +1.7
Final Score Prediction: Broncos 23 – Raiders 21

Let the Real Games Begin!

2008-09-03T17:46:00.000-07:00

Those of you familiar with my work may recall that I don’t post lines until week #4. Well, I’m going to start at week #1 this year using last year’s stats modified with the new roster information plus other angles as I see fit. I’m mostly starting in week #1 so that I can be included in ThePredictionTrackers season-long linesmaking competition, where I finished up in second place for the second half of last season. So buyer beware, as it won’t be until week #4 that I’m exclusively using statistics from this season! I plan on having a free website with my lines, recommended plays and a ton of statistical goodies up later in the season

Redskins at Giants

Last Year’s Injury Levels and Notes:

Redskins: The Redskins dealt with injuries to the right side of their O-Line for all of 2007. Randy Thomas at RG was injured in Game 2 and only came back to start one more game late in the season. Jon Jansen at RT was injured in the first game of the season and done for the year, pressing Stephen Heyer into the starting role. Heyer dealt with his own injuries through the middle of the season before starting the remainder of the games from week #10 on out. All of these players are back and ready for the new season, with the younger Heyer keeping the starting job at RT versus the long in the tooth Jansen. The left side of the line was solid for Washington last year with Samuels, Kendall and Rabach missing only one start between them. The Redskins made a late run winning their last 4 regular season games to squeak into the playoffs. A disinterested Cowboys team with nothing to play for in week #17 gave them the final necessary regular season win. The Redskins late season streak was impressive when you look at the nagging injuries at wide receiver and the death of Sean Taylor they had to deal with. The key to their late season run was the insertion of the ancient Todd Collins into the starting lineup for the injured QB, Jason Campbell. Collins led the team with a 106.4 passer rating for the remainder of the season, due to his inability to throw any interceptions until the playoff loss versus Seattle. The Redskins have a new coach/offensive coordinator in Jim Zorn, who brings a West Coast style offense, so once again the Redskins have had to learn a new offensive playbook, something they may be accustomed to doing by now, lol. They’ve struggled in the preseason, so there’s a big question mark as to how many weeks it will take them to be comfortable with the offense. Also, they don’t have a very good group of receivers for a West Coast offense with S. Moss and Randel El as the starters.

Giants: The Giants only had their top two running backs, Jacobs and Ward, on the field at the same time for 4 games last season, from weeks 5 to 8, in which time they swept a weak line up of opponents – the Jets, Falcons, 49ers and Dolphins. Bradshaw filled in admirably late in the season, and ripped off an 88 yard TD run that greatly enhanced his per-run average as he only had 23 total attempts for the season. So, the Giants are pretty stacked at running back heading into week #1. The Giants’ success running the ball last season despite some revolving injuries can be largely attributed to the consistency of it’s offensive line, which remained intact for the entire season, and returns all 5 starters this year. They ran the ball 47% of the time last year, the 11th most in the NFL, and there’s no reason they won’t try to win games by establishing the run this year, as Manning is consistently inconsistent, as is the health and effort of their wide receivers and tight ends. Defensively, the Giants will be without their pass-rushing specialists Strahan and Umeniyiora this year, and that’s a pretty big drop off. The Giant’s pass-rush kept the pressure off of their suspect and oft-injured secondary. No such luck this year barring some miraculous developments on the D line.

What to Expect This Game:

Running, and lots of it. The Giants, as I mentioned, ran the ball 47% of the time last season. The Redskins? Even more, at 47.9%. Based on last year’s numbers alone the Giants would have an advantage in the running game, but that advantage is nullified by the Redskins’ starting the season with a healthy offensive line while the Giants start with a weaker defensive line. The Redskins had a better passing game last season, but I have the passing games rated near equal when you factor in the Redskins’ apparent struggles with the new system and coaches. The Giants’ have home field advantage, but they played a lot better on the road last year, lol. The crowd will be pumped to finally support the Super Bowl champs after not getting a single playoff game at home last year, and maybe a little bit of that energy will help the Giants. This game figures to be close, and I have the Giants winning by what comes down to home field advantage when last year’s numbers and this year’s factors are looked at.

My Line: Giants -1.7
Final Score Prediction: Redskins 17 – Giants 20

Yes, I'll be back for the 2008 season

2008-08-05T12:04:00.000-07:00

I can see from page hits that people are starting to check in a little more to see if I'm up and running for the looming season. I won't be doing anything preseason, and will be doing very limited action during the first 3 weeks of the regular season -- 2nd half bets if anything. That's the nature of spreadsheet based handicapping, I'm afraid.

Also, I hope to have a website up and running ready for week #4, which will include a bevy of tables and information to aid anyone in their handicapping. I'll provide details here in the future.

2007 ended up being another very successful season for me, which makes 5 in a row since I started taking fundamental handicapping with a spreadsheet seriously. All of these seasons were documented at TheRX.com NFL forum, where I've been one of the most consistent winners over this time span.

Week #17 Plays

2007-12-28T14:36:00.001-08:00

Week #17 Plays

2 Unit:

Eagles -2.5/Chargers -2.5 Teaser 6.5 points

1.5 Units:

Chiefs +6.5

1 Unit:

Cowboys +9

Falcons ML

Bears +2

Bucs +15.5/Jags +20/Chiefs +20/Colts +18 Teaser 13 points

Chiefs ML to win 1 unit

Broncos/Vikings Over 41

Bucs +3 (-120)

Eagles -7.5

Packers/Lions Over 20 1^st half

Packers/Lions Over 38.5

¾ Unit:

Chargers -8

½ Unit:

Pats/Giants Over 24 1^st half/Winner

Giants’ TT Over 17/Winner

Pats/Giants Over 4 sacks/Loser

Giants longest FG/Loser

Panthers’ TT Under 20

Bucs’ TT Over 17

Cowboys’ TT Over 14

Jags’ TT Over 17

Ravens’ TT Under 16

Raiders’ TT Under 17

Cardinals’ TT Under 27

Chiefs’ TT Over 14

Jets’ TT Under 20

To Win ½ Unit:

Pitts/ Balt 1^st score not a touchdown

No 3 unanswered scores Pitts/Balt

No 3 unanswered scores KC/Jets

No 3 unanswered scores Car/TB

No score last 2 min of 1^st half Pitts/Balt

No score last 2 min of 1^st half KC/Jets

No score last 2 min of 1^st half Car/TB

1/3 Unit:

Packers -3.5/Over 20 – 1^st half Parlay

Week #17 Lines & Values

2007-12-28T14:35:00.000-08:00

Week #17 Lines & Values ***Updated Saturday Night***

Everyone knows week 17 can be a crapshoot because you don’t know how much starters will play for teams with their playoff position locked up. I did the best I could reading through team reports etc. to try and determine how much starters will play for teams in this position, and how that affects the point spread and total – so there are some heavy manual adjustments to my lines that are normally not present.

Legend

Visiting Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value

Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Patriots/-10/-13/Giants 6.6% value

Giants/46.5/48.5/Over 4.1% value

Bills/+7.5/+13.5/Eagles 14.3% value

Eagles/37.5/37.5/No Value

Panthers +5.5/-3/Bucs 23.6% value

Buccaneers/36/33.5/Under 7.1% value

Bengals -3/-3/No value

Dolphins 48/45/Over 6.2% value

Cowboys +4/+9/Cowboys 13.1% value

Redskins/39/42/Over 7.6% value

Lions/+5/+6/Packers 2.9% value

Packers/39/44.5/Over 14.4% value

Jaguars/+6.5/+3.5/Jaguars 6.9% value

Texans/41/41.5/Over 1.0% value

Saints/-2/+2.5/Bears 10.6% value

Bears/40/41.5/Over 3.3% value

Steelers/-3/-3/No value

Ravens/34.5/29.5/Under 14.3% value

Seahawks/0/+8/Falcons 20.7% value

Falcons/38/36.5/Under 4.3% value

49ers/+12/+11/49ers 2.8% value

Browns/40.5/41.5/Over 2.3% value

Titans/-5.5/-2/Colts 8.7% value

Colts/39/39.5/Over 1.6% value

Vikings/-3/-1/Broncos 5.2% value

Broncos/41.5/46.5/Over 12.6% value

Chargers/-8/-11.5/Chargers 8.0% value

Raiders/42/40/Under 4.1% value

Rams/+6/+4/Rams 4.2% value

Cardinals/48/43.5/Under 9.2% value

Chiefs/+6/-4/Chiefs 30% value

Jets/34/33.5/Under 0.8% value

Week #16 Lines & Values

2007-12-22T12:03:00.001-08:00

Week #16 Lines and Values

Legend

Away Team/Actual Point Spread/My Point Spread/Value
Home Team/Actual Total/My Total/Value

Cowboys/-10.5/-8/Panthers 5.6% value
Panthers/42.5/42.5/No value (-0.3 point weather deduction applied)

Browns/-2.5/-2/Bengals 1.0% value
Bengals/43/48/Over 11.3% value (-3 point weather deduction applied)

Packers/-8.5/-8/Bears 2.3% value
Bears/33/37.5/Over 14.0% value (-6 point weather deduction applied)

Texans/+7/+10.5/Colts 7.9% value
Colts/45/49/Over 9.1% value

Chiefs/+4.5/+6.5/Lions 4.8% value
Lions/43.5/38.5/Under 11.1% value

Dolphins/+22/+19/Dolphins 6.4% value
Patriots/45/50.5/Over 12.3% value (-1 point weather deduction applied)

Giants/-2.5/+1/Bills 11.2% value
Bills/32/32.5/Over 1.9% value (-5 point weather deduction applied)

Raiders/+13/+13/No value
Jaguars/38.5/40.5/Over 5.8% value

Eagles/+3/0/Eagles 8.9% value
Saints/47/44.5/Under 5.7% value

Redskins/+6.5/+7.5/Vikings 2.8% value
Vikings/40.5/43.5/Over 7.7% value

Falcons/+10/+6/Falcons 9.1% value
Cardinals/44/39.5/Under 10.7% value

Ravens/+11/+6.5/Ravens 11.0% value
Seahawks/39/40/Over 2.1% value (-1 point weather deduction applied)

Jets/+8.5/+10/Titans 4.3% value
Titans/36.5/39/Over 7.0% value (-1 point weather deduction applied)

Buccaneers/-5.5/-8.5/Bucs 8.0% value
49ers/36.5/36/Under 2.0% value

Broncos/+8.5/+5.5/Broncos 6.1% value
Chargers/47/47.5/Over 0.7% value